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Archive for december, 2010

Richard Russell blickar tillbaka över guldets fantastiska resa sedan 2000

Så här när vi börjar närma oss det nya året passar det väl bra att blicka tillbaka och se hur guldet har utvecklats både i år och sedan uppgången startade år 2000. Och vem är bättre lämpad för denna uppgift än Richard Russell, som ofta går under namnet ‘the grandfather of newsletters’, som hör till de absoluta veteranerna och som sedan länge insett guldets riktiga värde.

Här är ett utdrag från hans nyhetsbrev från den 27 december:

I have posted below the year-end price of gold starting with the year 2000, the first up-year of one of the greatest and least appreciated bull markets in history. Take in this series, you may never see its like again.

2000 — $273.60
2001 — $279.00
2002 — $348.20
2003 — $416.10
2004 — $438.40
2005 — $518.90
2006 — $638.00
2007 — $838.00
2008 — $889.00
2009 — $1118.40
2010 — ?

I’ve been around a long time, and I’ve studied many primary bull markets. And now I want to venture a few of my observations.

In markets, I have never seen a series like the above end with a whimper or a fizzle. The end or the wind-up of such a series usually arrives with an upside ”explosion,” as those who have failed to participate in the series finally rush in to join in the apparent endless advance. This is the wild and wooly speculative phase of a great bull market. Big bull markets don’t end with a sigh, they end in exhaustion.

(1) Most great primary bull markets last longer and carry farther than the majority of investors (even the bulls) expect.

(2) A great primary bull market is an expression of something changing in a very fundamental and meaningful way. Following a great bull market, the world is never quite the same.

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, Guld

Kina stoppar illegal produktion av jordartsmetaller, kommer begränsa utbudet ytterligare

Som om den nuvarande obalansen mellan utbud och efterfrågan för jordartsmetaller (oxider) inte var ett tillräckligt stort problem för världens ledare, så rapporterar New York Times att Kina inlett ett program för att stoppa all illegal produktion av dessa oxider, som Kina säger är oerhört skadlig för miljön. Den illegala produktionen uppskattas stå för hisnande 50% av världens utbud av jordartsmetaller, så om Kina lyckas kan detta komma att minska det nuvarande utbudet avsevärt.

Många aktier relaterade till jordartsmetaller fortsatte att stiga på torsdagen, trots explosiva uppgångar dagen innan. Rare Element Resources, som på onsdagen rusade med 42%, fortsatte till exempel upp med 11%.

Förr eller senare kommer givetvis vinsthemtagningar. Idag meddelade Reuters att anonyma källor inom den kinesiska regeringen sagt att landet kanske inte kommer att presentera ytterligare en exportkvot för 2011, vilket kanske kan utlösa dessa vinsthemtagningar. Denna ‘nyhet’ låter dock väldigt suspekt och om den är sann handlar den i så fall snarare om ett kinesiskt rävspel. Det råder ingen tvekan om att landet kommer att ytterligare begränsa exporten av jordartsmetaller. Utnyttja i så fall nedgångar till att köpa.

Här är ett utdrag från artikeln i New York Times:

Rogue operations in southern China produce an estimated half of the world’s supply of heavy rare earths, which are the most valuable kinds of rare earth metals. Heavy rare earths are increasingly vital to the global manufacture of a range of high-technology products — including iPhones, BlackBerrys, flat-panel televisions, lasers, hybrid cars and wind-power turbines, as well as a lot of military hardware.

China mines 99 percent of the global supply of heavy rare earths, with legal, state-owned mines mainly accounting for the rest of China’s output. That means the Chinese government’s only effective competitors in producing these valuable commodities are the crime rings within the country’s borders.

And so Beijing, intent on maintaining its global chokehold on all rare earths, has begun an energetic campaign to crush the crime syndicates that dominate the open-pit mines in this part of Guangdong Province, home to most of southern China’s mining areas for heavy rare earths.

Whatever dent the crackdown may make in pollution and violence, industry executives say the effort is already putting additional crimps in global supplies of rare earths — whose exports Beijing has jealously controlled and whose prices have soared in response to rising industrial demand and a dearth of supply alternatives to China.

“We do believe that this source of supply is diminishing, and there is some evidence leakage over the border into Vietnam is diminishing,” said Judith Chegwidden, a managing director specializing in rare earths at Roskill Consulting Group in London.

James Turk: Den starka avlutningen på året för silver tyder på att blankarna har tappat kontroll, silver redo att explodera uppåt

James Turk intervjuades av King World News häromdagen och det är alltid intressant att höra vad han har att säga. Turk pekar på att silvrets starka avslutning på året, då många ‘städar upp’ i sin portfölj och då blankarna brukar passa på att trycka till priset för att minska årets uppgång och därmed optimismen, tyder på att blankarna håller på att tappa kontroll över silver och att det bara är en tidsfråga innan silver exploderar uppåt igen.

Har ingen som helst anledning att tvivla att James har rätt. Silver ser onekligen superstarkt ut och handlas över den psykologiskt viktiga 30 dollar-nivån och har handlats på ett nytt 30-års högsta under dagen.

Nedan finner ni intervjun med James Turk från KWN:

Just like last year, the metal prices are going to continue higher. It really doesn’t surprise me that both of the metals are in the process of taking out their previous highs, both gold and silver remain relatively undervalued. Gold and silver are the pinnacle of money and this is becoming increasingly apparent to investors around the world.

The fact that we are starting to see the metals go higher before the end of the year just goes to show that the shorts are losing control. The year end window-dressing is the most important, and they can’t keep the prices down to minimize the losses they are already carrying on their books. So it looks to me like we are getting ready to blast off on the upside.

There are really two factors that are driving the precious metals markets higher:

First, quantitative easing is having its expected effect. QE is debasing the purchasing power of the dollar, and that is causing gold and metals prices to rise. The second factor is the ongoing demand for physical metals in preference to any paper substitutes. I think what is likely to unfold in the first half of 2011 is another Lehman type of event, but the net effect will be somewhat different. Instead of a rush for liquidity, the primary objective will be a rush to safety and that means avoiding counter-party risk. The best way to do that is to own physical metal.

I think the key point Eric is that the serial bailouts of banks and governments that we have been seeing for the past couple of years is going to come to a head in the first half of 2011. To me that means serious financial repercussions, and King World News readers and listeners should be focusing on safety. Therefore we need gold and silver now more than ever.

Whether gold breaks out this week or next is irrelevant, it will happen soon enough. Silver has already achieved the $30 target I had predicted on your network. The $1,500 target I set on gold should be achieved in short order.

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, silver Taggar:, ,

Rare Earth aktier EXPLODERAR efter Kinas sänkning av exportkvoter

Aktier exponerade till jordartsmetaller (oxider) bokstavligen EXPLODERADE på onsdagen när den kanadensiska börsen öppnade efter två dagars helgstängt. Självklart var det kinas besked om att man sänker exportkvoterna för jordartsmetaller med 11% i den första omgången för 2011 som låg bakom utvecklingen.

Aktierna i vår investeringsportfölj har haft en fantastisk utveckling sedan vårt inlägg om jordartsmetaller. Nedan ser ni gårdagens uppgång i procent och inom parantes uppgången sedan inlägget den 3 oktober:

Avalon Rare Metals, +44% (+81%)
Molycorp, +7% (68%)
Rare Element Resources, +42% (68%)
Tasman Metals, +32% (143%)
Quest Rare Minerals, +16% (21%)

 

Sakta men säkert börjar världens ledare vakna upp och inse vilken katastrof som väntar många av deras industrier om det inte gör något Kinas dominerande position. Problemet är att det tar mycket lång tid att få en gruva i produktion, så Kina kommer att kunna utnyttja detta som en viktig bricka i deras politiska spel under en lång tid framöver.

USA har nyligen hotat att anmäla Kina till WTO, men som vi alla såg så lät sig inte Kina avskräckas det minsta då man fortsatte att sänka kvoterna. Reuters rapporterar idag att Kina tvärtom anser att deras export av jordartsmetallar är helt i linje med WTO. Allt detta är en tydlig signal till Washington.

Skall bli mycket intressant att följa denna utvecklingen.

Nedan finner ni artikeln från Reuters:

China defended its export controls on rare earth minerals on Thursday, saying that they were in line with World Trade Organization rules, after a government move to slash export quotas on rare earths sparked trade concerns.

China, which produces about 97 percent of the global supply of the metals used in the production of numerous high-tech products, cut its export quota by 35 percent for the first half of 2011 compared with a year earlier, saying it wanted to conserve reserves.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu reiterated at a regular news briefing in Beijing that the quotas were necessary for environmental protection.

”This accords with relevant WTO rules,” she said. ”In the future, China will continue to supply rare earths to the international market and will take effective management steps over their export in accordance with WTO rules.”

The foreign ministry does not set China’s policy on rare earths.

China has refused U.S. requests to end export restraints on rare earths that have alarmed trade partners, and Washington could complain to the WTO, which judges international trade disputes, the U.S. Trade Representative office said last week.

The rare earths issue adds to the growing list of trade-related disputes between China and the United States, which has accused China of poorly enforcing intellectual property rights and for its indigenous innovation policies that discriminate against foreign companies.

Prices have surged for rare earth minerals since the authorities in Beijing slashed exports by 40 percent this summer.

Beijing said the curbs were aimed at ensuring supplies for Chinese clean energy companies it is trying to promote internationally, but it has also said its dominance as a producer should give it more control over global prices.

A European Commission spokesman said the European Union had noted the latest quota figures and expected China to respect recent assurances of a guarantee of rare earth supplies to Europe.

Wind turbines and hybrid cars are among the biggest users of rare earth minerals, a little-known class of 17 related elements that analysts say are facing a global supply crunch as demand swells. The minerals also are used in some weapons systems.

U.S. makers of high-tech products such as Apple Inc’s iPads and various Japanese companies have been scrambling to secure reliable supplies of the minerals outside of China as Beijing steadily reduces export allocations.

Beijing has long insisted that other countries should share the responsibility for developing rare earths.

”The international community has a joint responsibility to ensure the supply of rare earths,” Jiang said. ”Other nations that have rare earth resources should proactively develop and make use of them, to jointly shoulder responsibility for global supplies.”

China has cautioned that it had not decided on quotas for the second half of the year.

Kina sänker exportkvoten för jordartsmetaller för 2011 med 11%

Kina meddelade på tisdagen att man sänker den första av 2011 års två exportkvoter för jordartsmetaller med 11% och har på onsdagen följt upp med en varning om att inte basera prognoser för helårskvoter utifrån den första kvoten, en signal om att det kan komma en kraftig sänkning när nästa exportkvot presenteras i juli. Inte nog med det, Kina kommer även att höja exportrelaterade skatter för en del jordartsmetaller med upp till 25% nästa år.

Nyheten fick inte oväntat relaterade aktier att stiga kraftigt. Sedan vårt inlägg om jordartsmetaller i början på oktober har flera av bolagen i investeringsportföljen fortsatt sin kraftiga uppgång. Molycorp, som stod i 29 dollar när den lades till i portföljen, handlades på tisdagen som högst kring 55 dollar, en uppgång på hela 90%, innan vinsthemtagningar till slut tog vid. Med tanke på att bolaget börsintroducerades så sent som i augusti på blott 14 dollar är det minst sagt en explosiv utveckling.

Även om en investering är förenad med stor risk så ser det onekligen mycket intressant ut både fundamentalt och tekniskt. Det faktum att Kina kontrollerar uppemot 97% av dagens produktion av dessa inom industrin oersättliga grundämnen (oxider) och kommer att utnyttja sin dominerande position samt att efterfrågan väntas fördubblas inom mindre än fem år, bådar mycket gott för den fortsatta prisutvecklingen.

Lägg därtill de gigantiska summor pengar som Fed och ECB trycker upp som fått hela råvarusektorn att närmast explodera så har ni alla ingredienser för en explosionsartad uppgång. Flera experter talar mycket riktigt om att vi med största sannolikhet kan se fram emot en liknande prisutveckling som för internetbubblan. Om priserna och aktierna till slut kommer att krascha på ett liknande sätt är det ingen som vet med säkerhet, men än är det sannolikt en bra bit kvar tills dess om så skulle vara fallet.

Så här kommenterade VDn för Australiska Lynas beskedet från Kina enligt Reuters:

”Export quotas continue to be a tool for the Chinese government to limit the export of China’s strategic resource,”

”The growth in the Chinese domestic market coupled with a decrease in production of rare earths in China is a likely cause for the tightening of export regulations,” said Curtis, whose company is aiming to start production in about a year.

Här är ett utdrag från Bloomberg:

China cut its export quotas for rare earths by 11 percent in the first round of permits for 2011, threatening to extend a global shortage of the minerals needed for smartphones, hybrid cars and guided missiles.

The government allotted 14,446 metric tons of rare earth exports split among 31 companies, the Ministry of Commerce said today in a statement. That compares with the first round this year of 16,304 tons and the second round of 7,976 tons, according to previous ministry statements. The government usually issues two rounds of export quotas every year.

China, which accounts for more than 90 percent of world supplies, slashed export quotas by 72 percent in the second half of this year, sparking a surge in prices. Japan, the world’s biggest user, has sought alternate supplies with companies including Hitachi Metals Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corp. seeking cooperative ventures at home and abroad to secure the minerals.

“This is in line with government officials’ comments that we need to protect the environment and resources,” said Chen Jiazuo, an analyst at metal researcher Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. “Controlling domestic production capacity, output and exports will continue to be the theme.”

The latest move to curb exports may further exacerbate tensions with the U.S., which last week said it may file a World Trade Organization complaint over restraints on supplies of the minerals.

Ny intressant stämning av JP Morgan och HSBC för silver manipulation

På tisdagen kom besked om ytterligare en gruppstämning av JP Morgan och HSBC för manipulation av silver. Vad som gör denna stämning lite extra intressant är att den beskriver hur de båda bankerna utnyttjat sin roll som förvaltare av de fysiska silver ETF-erna iShares Silver Trust Fund (SLV) och ETFS Physical Silver Shares (SIVR) för sin manipulation av silvermarknaden (se text i fet stil nedan).

Silver steg kraftigt under tisdagens handel och stängde över den psykologiskt och tekniskt viktiga 30-dollar nivån. Det ser onekligen ut som om vi snart kommer att få se nästa uppgångsvåg som flera experter som James Turk, Ben Davies och John Embry förutspått.

Här är ett utdrag från stämningen (via GATA.org):

Before the Class Period began, JPMorgan had become the custodian and an authorized participant of the largest known concentration of silver bars, the iShares Silver ETF, which holds in excess of 340 million troy ounces of silver, a sum that equals an estimated 1/3 of the total present global supply of silver bullion. As a result, it had actual knowledge of the precise whereabouts of much of the world’s known silver bar supply.

In approximately March 2008, JP Morgan acquired Bear Stearns, which held a very large short position in silver. With more of the total short position in silver concentrated in the hands of JP Morgan, it had a further motive to suppress prices.

Upon information and belief, JP Morgan works together with HSBC, the other dominant player in the silver and precious metals markets. In July 2009, HSBC became the custodian of the SIVR ETF, which meant that it had physical access to and knowledge of the silver held by that trust. Notably, it named JP Morgan as one of the sub-custodians of the SIVR ETF.

As a result of their participation in the silver ETFs, JP Morgan and HSBC had a direct opportunity to confer and discuss with each other the prices of silver held by each of them.

In addition, Defendants had a strong incentive to suppress downward the price of silver as measured by the NYSE-Arca and CME/COMEX instruments. For example, Defendants could pledge their silver to the ETFs in exchange for ETF shares, sell their shares to other market participants, drive down the prices of silver through trades on NYSE-Arca and CME/COMEX, buy back their ETF shares from investors at lower prices, and return their (now lower-priced) silver ETF shares in exchange for the silver bars initially pledged against those shares, the real value of which remained the same, and only notionally appears lower because of Defendants’ suppression.

Jim Rickards: Guld är USAs hemliga ekonomiska vapen

Den inom guldkretsar numer välkände Jim Rickards från Omnis hade en presentation i samband med en konferens kallad ”Rethinking the Future International Security Environment” i Washington den 7 december som jag varmt kan rekommendera att ni tittar på under julledigheten. Nedan är en trailer.

Här är en länk till hela föredraget

Enligt Jim var konferenssalen full med omkring 200 personer och publiken bestod av ”VADM’s (vice admirals), RADM’s (rear admirals), Major Generals, Brigadiers, Colonels, Majors, think tanks, Booz Allen and the usual suspects”. Alltså, hela den amerikanska militära- och säkerhetspolitiska eliten.

I sitt föredrag nämner Rickards bland annat att han anser att guld är den amerikanska regeringens hemliga vapen och pekar på att pappersvalutor har devalverats mot guld vid otaliga tillfällen under historiens lopp.

Här är mer om föredraget från GATA.org:

He said he expects the United States to avert the dollar’s collapse by returning it to a gold standard or even to avert the collapse of currencies worldwide by sponsoring a new gold-backed international currency, with gold revalued to perhaps $4,000 per ounce under either scenario. During the question period at the end of his presentation Rickards asserted that the paper gold markets in New York and London have sold claims to far more gold than the sellers possess or likely can obtain and that those markets will crash and resort to cash settlement if enough buyers ever try to take delivery. Of course that has been one of GATA’s main arguments lately.

In regard to devaluation against gold, it may be time again to note the study published in 2006 by the British economist Peter Millar, ”The Relevance and Importance of Gold in the World Monetary System.” Millar argued as Rickards does while predicting gold’s revaluation at a somewhat higher price. Millar’s study can be found at GATA’s Internet site here.

Här är en kommentar från en bloggare:

He has a lot of good information and then surprisingly he shows the video of Nigel Farage a Member of the European Parliament haranguing the leadership of the EU which ends in USSR style music and this is in front of a military audience ie the message being the politicians are really communists and you guys should be aware. He then progresses to gold and which countries own the most. He discusses the 6,000 mt of gold at the Fed in NY which is not the Fed’s gold but belongs to other countries. Remarkably, he then offers to his military audience the idea that in the event of a paper money meltdown or other such event, the military ie his audience could just go in to NY and take the gold to West Point and by adding this to the other 8,000 odd tonnes we are supposed to have in the country, they could then start a new currency with this gold backing it, while at the same time working out some deal with the real owners of the gold. Looks like a plan.

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, Guld Taggar:,