Archive for februari, 2011

Silver visar styrketecken, men ingen short squeeze i mars

Alla ögon riktades mot Comex idag med förväntningar om att vi KANSKE skulle kunna få se en sk Commercial Signal Failure (CSF) i mars, även om det var osannolikt. För att få till en CSF krävdes det att minst 8000 kontrakt krävde fysisk leverans, men rapporten visade på 4,250 kontrakt. Man skall dock komma ihåg att dessa kontrakt motsvarar hela 21,25 miljon uns med silver (även om det kan minska ytterligare), vilket innebär att kartellen blivit av med en stor del av sin ammunition och därmed är kraftigt försvagad inför nästa attack, som sannolikt kommer att bli maj månads kontrakt. Det faktum att Royal Canadian Mint har svårt att få tag på silver lär inte göra det lättare för kartellen att fylla på med ny ammunition.

Silver visar på fortsatt stor styrka trots de senaste veckornas kraftiga uppgång och bröt igenom motståndet kring 33,75 dollar och nosade på 34 dollar som högst där nästa motstånd finns. På ned sidan är det 32,50 dollar som gäller som kraftigare stöd.

Såsom silver beter sig så ser det onekligen ut som om det kan komma att bli ett försök att nå 35 dollar denna vecka. För att det skall ske kanske vi behöver lite hjälp av guld för en gångs skull. Guld har stoppats i sitt försök att ta sig upp mot 1420 dollar, men har samtidigt ett stöd kring 1408 dollar. Det är därför viktigt, på kort sikt, att guld håller sig ovan denna nivå för att öka sannolikheten att vi får se nytt all-time-high denna vecka. Vi får komma ihåg att fredagen bjuder på arbetslöshetsstatistik från USA, vilket innebär att guld kommer få det extra svårt då kartellen alltid brukar hålla nere priset inför rapporten.

Här är en graf över silver med kommentarer från Dan Norcini:


Jim Willie: Förbered er på QE i oändlighet

Rekommenderar att läsa följande inlägg från Jim Willie (The Hat Trick Letter), där han kommenterar de allvarliga konsekvenserna av QE och sammanfattar vad som väntar oss när det Keynianska experimentet till slut faller samman. Han kommenterar även den dramatiska utvecklingen på silvermarknaden och talar om varför guld kommer stiga till minst 5000 dollar när dollarn till slut kollapsar.

För er som inte är bekanta med Jim Willie så hör han till den lilla skaran människor som har förutspått mycket av det som just nu utspelas på världens finansmarknader.

QE2: The Road to a Gold Standard

What an incredible few weeks with global uprisings! It is not all too surprising that social eruptions over food prices come from the Arab world, since they spend up to 75% to 80% of income on food for basic needs. What proof that the global economy is not a closed system! The QE and QE2 initiatives have spread like a powerful virus, leading to global commodity prices heading upward and quickly. Even cotton is up 170% in price. The USFed has suffered even more credibility blows, calling the global food price inflation unrelated to its QE2 policy. It is obviously connected. What we have is the Western Big Banks protected from fraud prosecution, redeemed for their broken toxic balance sheets at government expense, leading to a global price tag in the form of foodstuffs and commodities. Worse, the USGovt and USFed continue to be run by fraud kings, who continue to maintain a tight strangehold on the purse of the state and the Printing Pre$$ itself that produce deficit spending and fresh phony money. Ironically, the punishment for the US banking system is chronic unending insolvency. Despite the largesse to prop them up, fund their channels, redeem their toxic debt, enrich their executive packages, they remain the same Zombie banks from late 2008. Tragically, the USGovt will continue to fund their black holes instead of restructuring like Iceland, which is back on its feet. The battle cry of Too Big To Fail for the Big US Banks is a call to sustain the corruption and to ensure no recovery ever!!

In the meantime, fast rising gasoline prices and higher crude oil price, along with a host of industrial metals like copper, have lifted the entire cost structure of the USEconomy, and the global economy since all are priced in US$ terms. The banking officials act like keeping US wages down it a noble objective with a national purpose. It is indeed a noble purpose, as the nobility remain with money, but the masses will not be capable of effectively dealing with the cost squeeze. Businesses not well placed within the Fascist Business Model will also fare poorly. The list of US companies is long that have complained of an important cost squeeze. Expect many businesses to suffer a vanished profit margin in the next few months. The process has already begun, in fact well along. Across the oceans, the untold story on the geopolitical front is not the billboard message given by the obedient US press. The Arab world does not simply demonstrate on the city streets as a result of higher cost for hummus, bread, and cooking oil. The Arab people sense the demise of the Anglo Empire. They sense the end of the US & UK support for their tyrants and royals, who have enriched themselves and their families. The Arab people sense a weakening of their leaders and their system of government, often harsh and repressive. The food prices only serve as a lightning rod to gather the people together. What is happening is the defacto Petro-Dollar Standard is crumbing ever so slowly. Many eyes are fixed on Saudi Arabia, where the royals are increasingly fearful. All hell breaks loose if the Saudis lose their grip of the Petro-Dollar device, by which the OPEC crude oil is sold in USDollar terms. THE PETRO-DOLLAR IS THE LACE ON THE CORSET THAT SUPPORTS THE THE ANGLO-AMERICAN FRONTISPIECE. Remove the Petro-Dollar practice in global crude oil sales, and the United States becomes isolated, its currency rejected, since it cannot stand on its own. Observe the US trade gap and escalating federal deficit.


Put aside the fundamentals of Silver. It continues to see huge industrial demand, no replacement opportunities, and totally depleted stockpiles. It continues to see skyrocketing investment demand growth, massive shortages for national coin mints, and reports of extreme machinations to relieve the inventory shortages at exchanges. Focus instead on the silver market. The everpresent Big US Banks continue to ply their trade, selling silver contracts without benefit of posting collateral, otherwise known as naked shorting. However, since the autumn months, their game, their modus operandi, has backfired badly in their faces. By means of lowering the paper contract silver price, they enable a cheaper physical silver price. Imagine being a big buyer of silver bullion metal. If the strongarm syndicate forces choose to offer a discount from the corrupted price discovery system, then the outcome is hardly favorable. The physical buyers ramp up their purchases, enjoy the price discount, and thank the absurd connection between the paper silver and physical silver markets. In fact, evidence is growing fast that the two markets are gradually diverging. The Jackass forecast from months ago was for the eventual divergence between the paper silver market, where increasingly contract settlement takes place in cash (with a 25% bribe to keep quiet and walk away) and the physical market, where acute shortages have not stopped the aggressive purchases of those seeking to diversify out of the USDollar.

Aw heck!! Don’t put the shortage aside. Observe it instead and take personal action with the remaining wealth not destroyed. Understand the incredible shortage. Thanks to Nick Laird of Sharelynx for the fine chart. By the way, shortages result in massive price increases to achieve balance between Supply & Demand, a concept totally missed by the clueless cast of economists that litter the USGovt and Wall Street landscape. They believe price is something achieved by JPMorgan market intervention, for the national good. They wrecked the system and markets, yet remain in control of the USGovt and its finance ministry. They should be in prison. They should watch over their shoulders.

In the last week, two significant factors must be mentioned, each important in its own right. Last week, both factors were overrun by the silver market as new highs were established in the silver price. Options expiration for silver futures contracts usually brings about a huge ambush by the usual suspects, the Big US Banks, who sell vast additional futures contracts without posting any collateral. Mere mortals are prohibited from such naked shorts! Usually the imminent options expiration date results in a significant sudden swoon in the silver price, at least in the futures market, the so-called but increasingly absurd price discovery arena. This past week, the silver price zoomed toward $34/oz despite the threat of ambush, in total defiance to the options expiration deadline. Also, the COMEX in their height of wisdom and market rig efforts decided to raise the margin requirements for silver, for the umpteenth time since last summer. Usually such a margin hike results in a significant price drop like a wind sheer to an commercial jet aircraft. This past week, the silver price zoomed toward $34/oz despite the threat of margin ambush, in total defiance to the greater hardship to maintain margin. It is unusual to see a silver price advance in the face of one such factor. But it rose with gusto in the face of two important obstacles. My forecast in the last few months has been steady, that silver would lead the precious metals. That has been confirmed. While silver raced past $30 and $31 with ease, Gold has yet to confirm the breakout beyond the January highs. All in time.

A final comment on price estimates for goals and targets. As preface, consider that despite a powerful USEconomic recession in progress, and despite earnings declines for the major US companies, and despite the profit margin compression to lower levels from rising costs, the S&P500 companies have a collective Price/Earnings Ratio that stands as ridiculously high. The absurdity lies in forward P/E Ratios, since the supposed expert equity analysts do not factor in the rising costs and falling profit margins. Estimates on future earnings are ridiculously low and totally fallacious. The P/E Ratios might be subject to division by zero soon, as profit margins vanish from fast rising costs. Numerous companies from Whirlpool to Kraft have tipped the market off, but the market has so far ignored the warning call about costs. These costs are obvious consequences to the Quantitative Easing initiatives done by the US Federal Reserve. Next consider the estimated price target for Gold if the monetary aggregate is based in gold held by the USGovt in reserves. My argument, and the argument of many informed analysts, is that the USGovt has no possession of gold whatsoever, having leased and sold the entirety of Fort Knox, then sold European gold, then sold Chinese gold. So the recent estimates of $7000/oz gold or $8000/oz gold make little sense if the monetary aggregate is divided by a gold reserves quantity likely to be ZERO, bound by lies at worst and myth at best. Therefore, the potential Gold price is infinite, since division by zero cannot be done. This utterly basic point escapes many conventional analysts, who have yet to benefit from any independent audit of the gold reserves. The claim of national security is given, but the reality is more like national insecurity!

It should always be noted that silver has gained much greater acceptance as a monetary asset. The Chinese Govt in February announced a new objective to put into action, for diversifying their reserve assets to include silver and platinum. This is huge news. Never before has the silver metal been included in national sovereign reserves management, an unprecedented event. Gold awaits confirmation of the silver breakout. The momentum swing move was so quick, so sudden, so breaktaking, so powerful, that it could not be sustained. Just like in the last four months of year 2010, expect the corrections to be brief and not too painful. After three or four such mini-corrections, only later can the silver market expect another consolidation that endures like what was seen in January. Maybe by June the timing will produce a month of consolidation.

Läs hela inlägget från Jim Willie

Egypten förbjuder export av ”all form av guld”

Reuters rapporterar att Egypten just infört ett förbud av export av ”all form av guld” som gäller till åtminstone den 30 juni. Knappast oväntat med tanke på de rapporter om att guld bokstavligen flödat ut ur landet. Anledningen som man nämner, ”att bevara landets tillgångar innan situationen stabiliserats”, säger väl nästan allt man behöver veta.

Regelbundna läsare kanske kommer ihåg inlägget om att Egyptiska tullen strax innan oroligheterna i landet funnit stora mängder guld och valuta som gömts inuti bl a örngott.

I en artikel i The Telegraph nyligen berättades det också om att Mubarak frenetiskt försökt att rädda undan sina tillgångar, inte minst genom att ta med sig guld ut ur landet. Tidningen nämnde att detta mer eller mindre var hela anledningen till den försenade avgången.

Sakta men säkert kommer världen att vakna upp till betydelsen av guld för att bevara sin förmögenhet som snabbt urholkas tack vare Ben och hans vänner.

Här er mer från Reuters (via ZeroHedge):

Egypt Bans Export Of Gold ”In Any Form”

Looks like speculation that the Egyptian Central Bank’s gold stash may have been just modestly plundered is starting to play out. According to Reuters. ”Egypt has issued a ministerial decree immediately banning the export of gold in all its forms, including jewellery and ornaments, until June 30, the official news agency MENA said on Sunday. ”This decision, which comes in light of the exceptional circumstances the country is passing through …, is to preserve the country’s wealth until the situation stabilises,” MENA said. Egypt’s currency has come under pressure after some of the country’s main sources of foreign currency, including tourism and foreign investment, collapsed after the protests that ousted President Hosni Mubarak erupted on Jan. 25.” Obviously, this ”emergency” step would not be required if the E(gyptian)CB was still in full possession of its purported stash of the inedible metal. Whether the decline is due to alleged Mubarak sequestering of the shiny metal, or by other members of the former ruling regime is unclear, but one thing is certain: the WGC is long overdue in adjusting the Egyptian gold holdings from 75.6 tonnes to their real current value… far lower. As for Egyptian fiat: that is as freely exportable now as ever. If only anyone wanted it. But yes, somehow emerging markets are manipulating their currencies lower than fair value, the conventional wisdom claims.

Dan Norcini föklarar den svaga utvecklingen för guld- och silverbolagen

Guld- och silvergruvornas oförmåga att belöna sina aktieägare med sin historiska hävstång mot guld- och silverpriset har satt många investerares tålamod på ett stort prov.

En viktig anledning till den svaga utvecklingen är den sk spreadtrade som stora hedgefonder etablerat sedan lanseringen av guld-ETFs, där man gått lång guld och kort gruvbolagen. Nedan är ett utmärkt inlägg med graf och kommentarer från Dan Norcini, som ger mer utförlig information kring denna strategi från hedgefondernas sida.

Det gäller dock att fortsatt tålamod för förr eller senare så kommer gruvbolagen att bryta sig loss och då kan det gå otroligt snabbt uppåt. Så snabbt och kraftigt att om ni inte redan ligger investerade så kommer ni med största sannolikhet inte våga att köpa in er när bolagen rusar med kanske 10-20% per dag, som t ex John Embry talat om nyligen.

Även om detta kan ske närsomhelst, så finns det inga garantier att det kommer att ske ens i år. Som Dan skriver gäller det därför att välja bolag som har så starka fundamenta att de kommer att stiga kraftigt utan hjälp av den bredare marknaden. Det finns exempel på ett antal sådana bolag, framförallt bland juniorerna. I investeringsportföljen finns exempel på flera sådana bolag, t ex Great Panther, Avino Silver och First Majestic.

HUI – Gold Ratio, GLD and the Ratio Spread Trade

The following chart details this ratio from which one can determine the performance of the gold shares in general against the price of the actual metal. It was in 2006 when I believe that the hedge fund world began implementing their ratio spread trade, in which they are going long the metal or the ETF and shorting some of the various gold shares. Since that time, the shares have acted as if there was a lead weight upon them compared to the price of gold itself with the exception of course being the announcement of the QE program in late 2008 alongside of the TARP.

You will note that this was not the case during the infancy period of this decade+ long bull market in gold. For nearly 3 years, the gold shares outperformed the metal itself as one can easily see by noting the soaring ratio. (2001 – late 2003).

I do not think it is any coincidence that once the GLD ETF was formed, the HUI – Gold ratio never exceeded the previous peak reached late in 2003. That ETF was formed and open for trading in November 2004. While the ratio did manage to move higher into early 2006, it peaked and then moved lower failing to better its high water mark from late 2003.

If there was ever a vehicle invented to siphon money out of the mining sector shares, GLD was it. Hedge funds and other large players seeking leveraged exposure to the gold price no longer had to go the mining share route but could instead margin up on GLD and play it that way. They also could make a pure play on the metal without worrying about geopolitical surprises, environmental issues, labor disputes, management issues, or dwindling gold reserves. In other words, they could get leveraged exposure to gold without dealing with the other risks associated with buying shares in a particular mining company.

For some hedge funds in particular, this became an opportunity to establish a spread trade in which they could go after companies which might be inherently weak but were merely being pulled higher along with the overall gold sector. Thus was born the ratio trade.

Since 2006, this trade has made a huge amount of money for the hedge funds. When the credited crisis erupted in the summer of 2008, they rode that trade all the way to bottom making a fortune out of it as the stock market collapsed dragging everything remotely resembling a paper share violently lower. Even as gold and silver prices imploded, the price of the gold and silver shares imploded even faster. Translation – the hedge funds playing this ratio trade made a fortune.

That changed rather abruptly in late 2008 when the Fed announced the beginning of a Quantitative Easing policy on the heels of the TARP program. The equity markets saw that as a bonanza for stocks in general and up went the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq. In such an environment, hedge funds and other large players did not want to be short any kind of stocks at all, and they began a violent wave of short covering in the mining shares which sharply reversed the downward trend in the HUI-Gold ratio. The shares began outperforming the metal once again until the summer of 2009 when it appears that the hedgies then began treating the sector differently and re-established the ratio spread trades once again.

As you can see, the ratio has gone nowhere since then and has ground lower reflecting the poor performance of the mining shares in general against the metal price itself.

I believe that we will need to see a pattern emerge on this chart informing us of when this trade is falling out of favor with these gigantic hedge funds before we can expect the mining shares to outperform the metal once again.

The net of all this is that those who buy gold and silver shares will need to do their homework and analyze what they are buying carefully. There are miners out there whose shares are doing very well even in this ratio trade environment. Hedgies will not lean on the shares of these stronger companies because there is not as much profit in it for them. Instead they will go after those issues which they view as having inherent weakness somewhere. One cannot just blindly throw money into the gold or silver miners just because gold and silver are in a bull market and expect to get ahead while this ratio trade is in operation. Do your homework and choose carefully. Getting frustrated and discouraged will not make the hedge funds feel sorry for you and take their marbles and go home just to suit your wishes. It is a ruthless business out there and in order to survive, you must learn to be unemotional about these things.

Dagens graf: Bernankes sedelpressar ångar på

Kategorier:QE Taggar:, ,

Rekordlåg exponering mot guld trots att priset är nära all-time-high, mycket positivt

Rekommenderar att läsa följande mycket intressanta artikel från Mark Hulbert. Mark publicerar Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI) där han gör en sammanställning över guld ‘sentimentet’ bland 160 nyhetsbrev. HGNS index är till stor hjälp för att få rätt timing vid sina investeringar. Ju färre som är positiva till guld, desto bättre är det att gå in eftersom många investerare då sitter på kontanter som kan driva upp guldpriset ytterligare.

Som Mark nämner i artikeln så står index i 45,3% just nu vilket är drygt hälften av den högsta index-noteringen på 89,6%, trots att guld bara är några dollar från all-time-high, vilket betyder att den genomsnittlige guldinvesteraren bara allokerat hälften av sin portfölj till guld. Detta är otroligt positivt från ett sk ‘contrarian’ perspektiv.

Här är hela artikeln:

Gold timers remain remarkably subdued — a good sign

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
Gold market sentiment over the last couple of months has provided a textbook illustration of what typically happens during bull-market corrections.

In early December, for example, when gold hit what so far has been its all-time high, bullish sentiment was nevertheless much lower than it had been on several other occasions over the previous several years. And over the subsequent six weeks, during bullion’s $100 correction, what bullish sentiment that had existed rapidly evaporated.

On both counts, contrarians could detect little of the enthusiasm and outright exuberance that signals an imminent major decline.

And, sure enough, gold’s correction turned out to be quite modest, and bullion is now back to within shouting distance of its early December high.

Consider what happened over the last couple of months to the average recommended gold-market exposure among a subset of the shortest-term gold-market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI):

  • In the week leading up to gold’s early December high, this average remained quite subdued. As I reported then: “The HGNSI is not at overheated levels right now. It currently stands at just 40.3%, which means that the average gold timer is allocating 60% of his gold portfolio to cash. That’s amazing, given that gold bullion is back to within shouting distance of its all-time high.” ( Read my Nov. 24 column.)
  • In late January, a point that we now know to have been close to the correction low, I reported that “this quick run for the exits [that had been exhibited by the average gold-market timer] is not typical of the stubbornly held bullishness that, according to contrarian analysis, is a hallmark of major market tops. “ ( Read Jan. 20 commentary.)

The $64,000 question now, of course, is whether gold’s rally will soon take the yellow metal into new high territory. Contrarians are betting that it will.

That’s because the mood among gold timers remains quite restrained. The HGNSI currently stands at 45.3%, just half of its all-time high of 89.6%. In other words, despite gold being only a few dollars shy of its all-time high, the average gold timer is still allocating more than half of his gold portfolio to cash.

That doesn’t guarantee that gold will go up, of course. But it does mean that there is a lot of sideline cash ready at a moment’s notice to be shifted into the gold market to propel gold higher.

Nay-sayers will object that gold’s big rally over the Presidents Day weekend had nothing to do with sentiment, arguing that it instead was caused by a flight to safety among investors worried about rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. And no doubt they are partially right.

But not completely so. My econometric tests of the HGNSI over the last 25 years shows that, at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use to conclude that a pattern is genuine, higher HGNSI levels are more often than not followed by below-average subsequent returns, and vice versa.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, Guld Taggar:,

James Turk: Dollarn hänger vid ett stup, short squeeze i silver fortsätter

I en intervju med King World News noterar James Turk att dollarn hänger vid ett stup just nu och att om vi bryter ner genom 77 på dollarindex så kan det gå riktigt fort utför och givetvis det motsatta för guld och silver.

Turk påpekar att dollarn alltid varit en tillflyktsort under perioder av osäkerhet, så med tanke på att den knappt lyckats lyfta efter den allvarliga situationen i Nordafrika och Mellanöstern är det så långt ifrån ett styrketecken man kan komma. En dollarkollaps kan vara nära förestående.

Här är intervjun med James Turk:

The dollar right now is hanging on the precipice.  If we break below 77 on the dollar index, look out below.  I don’t think people really appreciate how scary the dollar chart is here, or how ominous the implications really are.  There’s no predicting how far the dollar could plunge if confidence breaks.”

You’ve got civil war breaking out in North Africa and you have rebellions happening in the Middle-East.  In this kind of geopolitical situation, in the past the US dollar would always rally, but this time it can’t even bounce.  You know Eric the other side of this coin is that if the dollar falls off the edge of a cliff, precious metals are going to skyrocket.

Om silver: During the most illiquid time of the trading day, somebody decided to take out all of the stops in silver.  If you were not following during business hours in the Pacific Ocean you missed it.  I woke up this morning and looked at the chart and couldn’t believe what happened while I was sleeping.

The important point Eric is that no technical damage was done and in fact the situation has become even more bullish because that little smack down overnight took out all of the weak hands.

With this month’s important options expiry now behind us, I’m looking for higher prices next week.  Even though the March/May spread has flattened a little, the backwardation continues to grow to 2015 and has ballooned further to $1.16.  The short squeeze is continuing to develop.  The shorts are trapped and whether the trap springs this week or in a month or two I don’t know, but we are getting very close.

Om guld: While silver did get hit in overnight trading, gold hardly moved and then snapped right back.  Remember I said last time that the gold chart is beginning to look really strong, that is what the event last night displayed.

Gold is incredibly resilient and looks coiled for an explosive move higher.  We started our initial probe of the all-time high this week closing in on $1,430 before backing off.  Look for another probe of that $1,430 level very soon.  It won’t be long Eric before we take out that all-time high, particularly if the dollar falls off the edge of a cliff.

Här är en graf över dollarindex med kommentarer från Dan Norcini från i onsdags:

I mentioned yesterday in my comments that the Dollar was very weak even in the midst of what was most certainly a day in which risk trades were being pulled off and a rush to safety was underway.

Normally during such events, the Dollar along with the Japanese Yen, tend to be the beneficiaries of such activity. All that the Dollar could do was to end up a few points after spiking initially almost 100 points higher. That sort of activity was very telling and indicates that the safe haven bid for the Dollar was practically non-existent.

Today, with crude oil soaring, the broad equity markets, particulary the Nasdaq, getting slammed, and increasing unrest in the middle East as fear grows about the stability of Saudi Arabia, the Dollar is actually getting sold off. That is most remarkable.

I am thinking that the market is looking at the fragile state of the US economy and voting that rising oil prices are going to hit the US harder than most others. Keep in mind, that this is an ”economic recovery” built almost completely around the Fed’s massive liquidity injections through its QE program. That liquidty is being eaten up by rising crude oil prices as if by a munching PacMan.

It is as if the Fed is pouring water into a container full of holes punched in it by a awl with the words ”crude oil” engraved on the handle.

As I am writing this, I am also noticing that the long bond is fading quite dramatically from its best level of the session. That too will bear watching.