Arkiv

Archive for april, 2011

Dagens graf: Största guld reserverna per person

Annonser
Kategorier:Guld Taggar:

Guld och silver skvallrar om att nollställningen kryper allt närmare

Klassisk kartell-attack igår

Nytt all-time-high för guld (1538) och silver återigen nära 50 dollar samtidigt som dollarn är nära att notera nytt all-time-low gör det just nu mycket svårt för propagandaapparaten att dölja vad som håller på att ske.

Framförallt silver, som manipulerats kraftigt under så lång tid, har nu fullständigt brutit sig loss från kartellens grepp. Nu när ‘anden är ute ur flaskan’ och det är helt uppenbart att det knappt finns något fysiskt silver att tillgå kommer det bli i stort sett omöjligt för kartellen att återta kontrollen. Vi bevittnar därför början på slutskedet innan nollställningen.

Visst kommer kartellen fortfarande ha möjlighet att emellanåt trycka till metallerna rejält med papperspositioner, men den tid som kartellen köper för dessa papper för att hålla tillbaka uppgången blir bara kortare och kortare. Alla vet att det bara är en tidsfråga innan korthuset faller och vill därför ha fysisk metall till varje pris.

Ni har säkert noterat att gigantiska volymer silver, motsvarande hela 20% av allt Comex silver, omklassificerats till en icke levererbar kategori bara den senaste veckan!

Vi har fått höra en massa löjliga ursäkter (lögner) från CME men den VERKLIGA anledningen är att innehavare av pappersrättigheter till fysiskt silver till varje pris nu vill se till att detta silver inte levereras till någon annan för att undvika en Comex default, som de VET kommer att ske förr eller senare.

Vi har också sett hur vissa försäljare av fysiskt silver som Apmex just nu erbjuder gigantiska premier för att kunderna skall sälja sitt fysiska silver. Kanske kan Apmex senare sälja detta till JPM för en saftig premie då JPM behöver allt fysiskt silver de kan få tag på för att undvika en default?

Skulle det vara sant så skulle även följande utdrag från SGS, som kom från en anonym källa igår, förvärra situationen ytterligare för kartellen som kanske kommer tvingas till att betala ut ännu större kontantpremier för att undvika en Comex default i maj:

In a stunning development yesterday 18,366 MAY GOLD CALL options were EXERCISED for futures contracts and 21,721 MAY SILVER CALL options were EXERCISED for futures. If these are not settled in a backroom cash deal for large premiums a default is on the horizon.

Samtidigt kan man läsa rapporter om att t ex JP Morgan och Deutche Bank i tysthet t ex köpt på sig stora positioner platina för att själva sko sig på den stora rushen efter fysiska metaller som väntar runt hörnet. De VET att det, liksom för guld och silver, sålts gigantiska mängder med pappersplatina och att priset kommer att stiga till skyarna när de som trodde de ägde fysisk metall bara sitter på en värdelös pappersposition.

Att bankerna inte går efter guld och silver beror givetvis på att det bara skulle förvärra kartellens möjligheter att hålla illusionen om ett välmående fiatsystem vid liv och skulle därför inte gillas av t ex Fed och ECB.

Om alla sovande människor bara visste hur otroligt korrupt och riggat systemet verkligen är…

Den som bättre vill förstå betydelsen av vad som nu sker på silvermarknaden kan jag rekommendera följande artikel: Short Sellers Now Screaming About a Buy Side Silver Conspiracy

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:, ,

Dagens graf: Framtida värdet av en guld US Eagle i dollar tack vare Ben

Kategorier:Valuta Taggar:

Rusning efter guld när Ben ‘Pinnochio’ Bernanke talade

Beskedet från FOMC och inte minst presskonferensen med Ben ‘Pinnochio’ Bernanke (eller Printocchio som han också kallas) visade på det vi vetat sedan länge – Federal Reserve har inga som helst planer på att sluta med sina kvantitativa lättnader eftersom de inte har något annat val om de inte vill att det finansiella systemet skall kollapsa.

Precis som bl a Jim Richards har talat om har Fed för avsikt att fortsätta med återinvesteringar från den gigantiska portföljen, vilket blir en fin övergång till QE3.

Marknaden lät sig heller inte luras av Ben Bernankes usla lögner om bl a dollarn under presskonferensen utan insåg ganska snabbt att QE3 kommer att komma snabbare än de någonsin kunnat ana och skyndade med att lägga in nya order för guld och silver. Guld passade även på att notera ett nytt ATH på 1530 dollar.

Det här är vad Dan Norcini hade att säga:

The market has obviously interpreted the FOMC news and the comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke as a signal that they are unconcerned about the effect of their policy on the US Dollar, which is sinking further into the abyss. This has traders and investors moving strongly into the gold and silver markets, with gold soaring into a new all time high in nominal terms and silver shooting up a whopping 5%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar has now convincingly broken down below critical chart support near 74 on the USDX and looks on target to sink as low as 72. I have said it several times here on this site and over at jsmineset – if the Dollar breaks down below 72 on that chart and cannot recover that level within a couple of sessions, we will be witnessing the historic demise of the currency and the probable end of its role as the global reserve currency.

Thanks Ben and thanks to all the Fed governors whose foolish, inept, and short-sighted idiocy has set this nation on a path that will make the IMF prediction of its sliding into second place behind China, indeed come to pass. No nation ever kept its place of economic ascendancy by deliberately killing its own currency. An economically strong nation, with a solid manufacturing sector, the rule of law, an ethic of thrift, low taxes, reasonable regulation, etc, will by default have a strong currency.

The plight of the Dollar is now a commentary on the decline of our beloved nation. It speaks with a more pure voice than any analyst could ever aspire to and what it is crying is disheartening to an extreme for those with ears to hear it.

History has the advantage of being relatively objective in its analysis as it is removed from the passions of the era. It is with that in mind that I can confidently say it will render a harsh and severe criticism of those who led our nation and its monetary policy during this period as they presided over its decline.

Och här är en kommentar från Peter Schiff via KWN:

Ben Bernanke may deny that there is a causal relationship between his monetary policy and rising prices but the market knows differently. In fact when Ben Bernanke denies the relationship, then the expectation is that he is going to continue on his current monetary policy course which is the green light to buy gold, buy silver, buy oil, buy commodities, sell the dollar and that’s exactly what’s happening. That’s why the dollar is hitting new lows today.

You could see the dollar begin to fall as soon as the statement was released, and then the fall intensified when he (Bernanke) began opening up his mouth. He’s either lying or he’s incompetent or a combination of both, but neither inspires confidence in our country, our currency or our economy. I mean whenever Ben Bernanke opens his mouth you want to sell anything that is related to the United States.

They said they are going to continue to reinvest their maturing principle back into treasuries, so the Fed said they are basically not going to shrink their balance sheet and that’s inflationary on its own. Who are they kidding? The Fed is going to keep buying bonds because if the Fed doesn’t who else is going to do it? There is nobody who is going to buy them because the rates are too low. So the Fed is just talking, but anybody who understands reality can see through it. And obviously with the gold price soaring and the dollar plunging, a lot of people can see through it.

I think as early as this fall we could be in a dollar crisis because I expect the dollar to weaken throughout the summer. And if we don’t get a big bounce during the summer when they end QE2, which I don’t think they are going to end it but they might pretend they are ending it, if the market senses that the Fed is still printing money which they will be doing, the dollar I think could go into free fall. That is going to force the Fed’s hand and you are going to have really high interest rates and this economy is going to implode…but we have a phony economy that needs to implode.

Schiff om guld:

I think gold is going to have a big move. I think gold is underpriced right now. I don’t think this is going to be the move that wakes them (the public) up out of their coma, I think that move is coming. It’s going to be a much more spectacular move down the line.

Schiff om vad som kommer att krävas för guldgruvorna att börja röra på sig:

When this market senses that this gold rally is real. The gold bull market is 10 years old, you would think they would figure it out by now but there is more fear than greed in the gold market and you can see that in the mining stocks. So I think we are still early in the gold bull market.

Kategorier:Centralbanker Taggar:,

Några ord inför dagens skådespel från Ben Bernanke

Idag är det så dags för beskedet från Feds FOMC-möte, där vi väntas få signaler om att Fed har för avsikt att lätta på stimulanserna men att man inte vill gå för snabbt fram. Men som vi konstaterat så många tidigare så är det en omöjlighet för Fed att helt avsluta med sina stödköp av amerikanska statspapper, utan vi får sannolikt åtminstone se en övergång till återinvestering av portföljen innan ett nytt QE-program annonseras.

På den efterföljande presskonferensen, den första i sitt slag, kommer vi sannolikt att se en ny omgång med häpnadsväckande lögner från Ben som vägrar att sätta ett samband mellan skenande råvarupriser och kvantitativa lättnader. Här är 20 frågor till Ben Bernanke som vi borde få svar på men som vi troligtvis aldrig kommer att få höra ställas av den så kontrollerade amerikanska massmedian.

Det här är vad Jim Sinclair hade att säga inför beskedet:

Will they or will they not continue QE is not the question. They must, be it through the front or back door. The future of the dollar is what you need to know if you are to navigate this, the most violent upcoming part of the gold drama.

The dollar situation is damned if you do and damned if you don’t. A suspension of QE is negative MOPE that would impact the equity market, therein destroying the liquidity rally from March of 2009. The recovery is not getting serious traction regardless of the bliss of the media.

The US dollar would be hit hard by a collapse of this modest recovery that a suspension of QE would mandate. If QE is to continue, either front or back door, the dollar will remain under pressure.

Forget the media and blog commentary. The future of gold is all in the dollar. The US dollar has no future under present conditions.

Och här är några ord från Michael Pentio via KWN:

In an effort to bail-out his true master—the financial services industry–Bernanke is well along in the process of destroying the dollar and the middle class. Therefore, his press conference tomorrow will more be an effort to get Americans to “pay no attention to the man behind the curtain” and in the manner of a svengali, convince the public that the inflation they are witnessing is just a mirage.

But the bottom line is that the Fed Funds rate will remain exceptionally low for an extended period of time and Bernanke’s balance sheet will not be allowed to decrease. As a consequence, the dollar will continue to fall and commodities will barely notice a hiccup.

However, there are some questions that Bernanke still needs to address:

· Which mandate takes precedence; full employment or stable prices? The housing market and GDP are double-dipping. And initial jobless claims are now rising along with inflation. So what battle are you going to fight?

· If you were to raise interest rates and sell the MBS and Treasuries on your balance sheet—thus lowering their value–would the Fed become insolvent?

· And lastly, “If raising interest rates in the middle of the last decade caused asset bubbles to pop and a global credit crisis to ensue, why would it be a different outcome this time around, since the overall level of debt in the nation remains at an all-time high?

Kategorier:Centralbanker Taggar:, ,

Financial Times hjälper kartellen att snacka ner silver

Vi har flera gånger tidigare talat om och visat exempel på hur Financial Times hjälper kartellen att sprida propaganda och desinformation för att dämpa entusiasmen för guld. Följande artikel i helgen från FT om silver kommer därför inte som någon direkt överraskning, utan är snarare högst komisk.

Här är en kommentar från Bill Murphy:

The clueless author of the following article in the Financial Times really ticks me off. When the price of silver was $16.23 per ounce GATA told the CFTC and investment world about a real conspiracy, one that was eventually going to blow the silver market up because the likes of JP Morgan was shorting silver they did not own via the derivatives market … and lying to the CFTC, saying their short positions were hedged, which was the only justification for their massive 30,000 contract short position.

Well, here we are 13 months later and the price has soared to $46 and this bumblehead is stumbling around hypothecating about potential conspiracies in the silver market. This lightweight Farcy ought to be sent into the dumpster…

Kan inte annat än att hålla med.

Silver surge prompts conspiracy theorists

By Jack Farchy

Published: April 21 2011 10:23 | Last updated: April 21 2011 10:23

In 1980 it was the Hunt brothers. In 1998 it was Warren Buffett. And in 2011?

For anyone unversed in the history of the silver market, those dates refer to market squeezes that caused surges in the silver price. The talk among some conspiracy-minded traders and analysts is that something similar could be happening today.

It is easy to see why: during the past 12 months the price of silver has risen 154 per cent, outpacing gold (32 per cent), wheat (65 per cent), oil (45 per cent), and indeed almost any investment you’d care to mention.

Perhaps the most telling measure, the ratio between the price of silver and that of gold (ie the price of an ounce of gold divided by the price of an ounce of silver) has dropped to 33.5 times – after averaging 60-70 during the past decade.

The last time the ratio fell even close to this level was in 1998, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway quietly accumulated a huge position in the silver market, driving prices up 90 per cent in a few months to what was then a 10-year high of $7.90. On Wednesday, silver hit $45.37.

Before that, the last time the ratio was below 40 was in the early 1980s, following the most notorious silver market squeeze – that of William Herbert Hunt and Nelson Bunker Hunt, two billionaire oil baron brothers.

Is something similar happening today?

The silver market is never short of a wild rumour. The difference this time, though, is that the conspiracy theories are being seriously considered by senior figures in the industry.

As one senior banker puts it: ”I just do think it has the smell of somebody with a pretty significant buying programme … Silver is the sort of market that every decade attracts someone.”

The reason why the conspiracy theories have taken hold is because few traders or analysts can see a convincing reason for silver’s astonishing rise. According to data from consultancy GFMS, the silver market was in a surplus of 178m ounces last year.

Crucially, of course, that surplus was mopped up by investors. But visible investor positioning is hardly overwhelmingly positive – indeed, last week, even as silver prices rose, investors cut their bullish positions in the US futures market by 8.4 per cent.

Hence the conspiracy theories. Some of the whispers making the rounds in dealing rooms in London and Zurich include:

• A Russian billionaire with an eye for silver has been discreetly buying (for some reason Russia seems to be the most popular location of this putative billionaire – he or she could also be Middle Eastern or perhaps East Asian).

• There has been a secretive silver buying programme by the People’s Bank of China or some other central bank (but China is the favourite).

• Chinese traders are using silver imports as collateral to obtain credit in a similar way to copper – thus vastly inflating the country’s silver demand.

It is impossible to say if there is even a grain of truth in any of these tales. While some traders are taking them seriously, others believe the rise in prices is perfectly well explained by very strong, inelastic industrial demand plus extremely high retail demand in the US, India and China.

One explanation for why the silver market is confusing to many bankers and traders may be that they typically deal with large investors and so see little of the flow to retail investors and industrial consumers.

What is certain, however, is that with the view that silver is a speculative bubble so widespread, a sharp and painful correction can’t be ruled out.

Again, history may be informative. After the Hunt brothers’ squeeze in 1980, the price of silver collapsed 80 per cent in four months; the Hunts were later sanctioned for market manipulation and went bankrupt.

And following Warren Buffett’s silver play in 1998, the price of the metal dropped 40 per cent and Berkshire Hathaway recorded its worst annual results on record, relative to the S&P 500, in 1999.

Kategorier:silver Taggar:

Ytterligare något för otåliga gruvägare att reflektera över

Kräftgången för gruvbolagen fortsätter trots nya rekordnoteringar för guld och silver vilket som sagt sätter tålamodet bland framförallt nytillkomna gruvinvesterare på mycket stort prov. Även om det inte är HELA förklaringen så kan jag ändå bara säga – välkomna till en manipulerad och riggad marknad mina vänner!

Det kommer perioder, som dessa, när många, till blankarnas stora glädje, kommer att tvivla på om det någonsin kommer att ‘lossna’ och kasta in handduken. Är ni med i leken, så får ni leken tåla. För det gäller att ta sig igenom dessa plågsamma perioder för att ta del av den belöning som väntar. De som satsat på bra juniorer sitter sannolikt med uppgångar på flera hundra procent bara det senaste 12 månaderna, vilket sannerligen inte är illa.

Det här är vad den frispråkige Bill Holter hade att säga om dagens farsartade utveckling:

A brief commentary today regarding the bogus and I do mean BOGUS trading action in the metals and shares today. We have witnessed for 10+ years much manipulation, dirty, unethical and even illegal tricks to suppress anything metal, TODAY ABSOLUTELY TAKES THE CAKE!!! Gold was up $15 and Silver over $2 last night in Asia and held those gains until the N.Y. open and then BAM… they are both down now and the HUI is down 13. Ask yourself how that can possibly be? PAPER! That’s how! It will be interesting to see a massive increase in open interest for today’s trading as that would show NEW shorts entering for suppression.

THIS action is occurring immediately after 2 high ranking Chinese officials have said over the weekend that they would like to cut Dollar reserves by 2/3rds or roughly $2 Trillion. This is virtually impossible to accomplish but it does tell you they are no longer buyers. Japan will also obviously not be a buyer as they will need capital to rebuild the country, so now we have the # 1 and 2 owners and past buyers of Treasuries turned seller which leaves ONLY the Federal Reserve as the sole buyer. Can you say ”Ponzi scheme exposed”!? THIS news is supposed to be Gold negative or Dollar positive? Not a chance and what a complete joke and farce! In a free market Gold would be up a minimum $100 today and Silver at least $3, they are not only because your friendly neighborhood ”cabal” is trying to paint a ”top” to scare the bejesus out of you.

NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS HERE, remain calm and collected with the knowledge that YOU have done the math and logic and that your positions in metal are correct. ”They” absolutely have to throw everything they have at this market here and now to try to break it. The Dollar is collapsing because of fiscal and monetary policies but to continue the illusion ”they” CANNOT allow Silver and Gold to get any more out of control. Maybe they actually get a correction going for a couple weeks, days or only for a few hours, IT DOES NOT MATTER ONE BIT! The game is over and anyone who can add 2+2 is in the process of figuring this out.

All I can say is sit back and relax about your metals positions because soon you will have more important things to worry about, like where to find available gasoline and food! THIS is coming soon, stay prepared.

Och här är en kommentar från Bill Murphy:

The action in the gold and silver shares is beyond a joke. Short term, due to hedge funds, a clueless public, or The Gold Cartel doing their pitiful thing, ANYTHING can happen. All I know is, as right as those of us on Planet GATA have been on gold and silver these past many years, we will be right on what is coming down the pike for the gold/silver shares. All that is needed is patience and, if you can, add to your positions on the dips.

Kan även varmt rekommendera att läsa följande förklaring från ‘Dave in Denver’:

I’ll Take A Crack At Explaining The Performance Of The Mining Shares

There’s been reams of discussion recently about the performance of the mining shares relative to the price of gold/silver. I believe a lot of the disappointment in the performance of the shares is because the metals have been hitting new highs almost every day now. But there are a lot of ”levers,” or variables, that drive mining share valuation – not just metal in the ground multiplied out by the price of gold/silver. And make no mistake about it, the HUI and XAU have been hitting new all-time highs during this period, so anyone not making money in the mining shares should reassess their strategies and anyone not happy with their bounty will probably always be a malcontent.

But rather than let our views get overwhelmed by conpiracy theories and childish whining, let’s cut to the chase and just look at some numbers and market theory. I’m going to keep this simple for illustrative purposes. To begin with, the price of a stock at any given time largely reflects the current fundamental value, or instrinsic value, of the company plus some expection of the company’s future prospects. So if a mining stock is priced at $50, that value reflects everything that is currently known about the company and its industry fundamentals PLUS it contains some value that reflects what the market thinks will happen in the future. So for a solid mining stock at $50, that price contains the public knowledge that gold is at $1500 PLUS some ”discounted value” for the expectation/probability that the price of gold will be higher in the future. So just because gold goes from $1400 to $1500, if the market thinks that $1500 is all we’ll see, the price of the stock won’t move. This is ”rational expectations” theory in a nutshell and is good for explaining a large part of stock market valuations, everything else being equal.

Now, what I believe, and what has been the case for the duration of this 10+ year bull market, is that MOST of the market players do not understand gold or why it’s moving higher AND they believe gold has topped out every time it hits a new high. This is GREAT news for the minority contingency who DO understand the dynamics, because at some point the size of the market that does come to understand the market will grow larger and the cash pools flowing into the sector will grow at a geometric rate, accelerating the push higher in these mining stocks. I personally believe that we will see at least $5000 gold. But think about the small percentage of market players that actually believe $2000 is even possible. Probably less than 5%. The price of mining stocks reflects this huge imbalance between the ”knowers” – gold bulls – and the skeptics – the 95% who think I’m nuts. This dynamic is part of what is known as the ”efficient markets” hypothesis and I believe that the market is being very ”inefficient” in its understanding of the precious metals. Because of this, and this view of the market has been proved correct for the past 10 years because the metals sector has substantially outperformed ALL other asset classes, I believe that there are still huge profits to be made in this sector up until the entire market has knowledge and understanding. THAT is when we will be in the bubble phase. Until then I believe there is still a lot of easy ”information arbitrage” profits to be had.

There’s a lot of other factors at play as well. As my good friend and colleague ”Jesse” has pointed out, there is a 50% correlation between the SPX and gold and a very high correlation between the SPX and the mining stocks. The SPX is about 3% below the high it hit in mid February. So if the mining stocks are lagging the performance of gold, a meaningful part of this lag can be attributed to the overall weakness in the stock market. You are doing yourself a disservice if you do not read his work on this: LINK

From a technical perspective, Dan Norcini wrote an excellent description of a ”ratio” trade that is being played en masse in the hedge fund community, in which they go long a gold ETF and short the mining shares. This is an excellent piece that I believe explains a lot about what is going on: LINK Because I know from experience that big NYC hedge funds all travel in herds, I know that there is a ”herd” of cash playing this trade and that most of the players do NOT know about, and could care less about, what gold is doing and why. Suffice it to say that there is a large pool of capital that is long gold/silver and short the mining stocks. Because the universe of mining stock shares is very illiquid compared to the broad stock market, the effect of a lot of cash shorting the shares will ”exaggerate” the price pressure put on them. But of course, as Norcini points out, the reversal of this trade en masse will send the mining shares higher very quickly in violent fashion. So get ready for that ride because it will come.

Finally, there’s some other important ”levers” that go into valuing mining stocks besides the price of gold and the amount of metal in the ground. The two biggest factors are cost and risk. Energy represents about 50% of the cost of actual mining. So a high production mining company’s expenses increase rapidly when the dollar declines rapidly and the price of oil appreciates rapidly. This fact is not lost on the market and is reflected in a lesser valuation multiple assigned to stocks in this industry. In addition, the cost of labor increases AND so do regulatory costs. Regulatory costs include taxes and environmental legislation.

And finally, and especially relative to 10 years ago, the political risk and costs associated with that factor have escalated substantially over the last 10 years. Just ask any mining company with operations in Venezuela or Bolivia. Although you can’t quantify this risk on paper, I guarantee anyone reading this that the market collectively will assign a discount factor to the sector based on political risk expectations. So, for example, the price of gold can move from $1000 to $1500, but if the market thinks a couple of countries in South America and Africa will either massively increase mining tariffs OR outright nationalize operations, this expectation will be reflected with relatively lower valuations in relation to a big move higher in gold. And trust me, as the price of gold continues to escalate, the risk that ”have not” Governments seize the bounty increases. I promise you this is a factor in the performance of the shares.

Now having said all that – and please make no mistake about it – I am NOT saying that manipulation is not a sizable factor in the mining shares, it is my view that the price of gold/silver will continue to appreciate a LOT more rapidly than the true cost of energy, labor, regulation and geopolitical risk. AND if you have a carefully selected portfolio of large cap and small cap mining shares, you will make a fortune.

I will say that our fund has been weighted about 60/40 metal/miners since the beginning of the year because we felt that the price of the metal would outperform the shares on a risk/return basis. I will also say that if you have a VERY carefully picked selection of junior exploration mining stocks that you might get wealthy off of them. Most people, even those heavily involved in this sector, are not at all aware of the degree to which penny mining stocks shot up during the 1970’s. Many of the today’s junior mining stocks will have breath-taking moves over the next five years. Because junior miners do not have the cost of mining attached to their operations, the hope of the next massive discovery will eventually capture the imagination of the investing public and speculative money will eventually flood into the juniors. This is a wave that I know is coming and that I want to ride, especially since I believe we have picked some companies that have a good shot at actually finding some big discoveries (you learn a lot about selection and whom to talk to and whom to trust after doing this sector exclusively for 10 years).

We have the stock side of our fund weighted about 50/50 between juniors and large caps. The percentage in juniors will likely increase when we decide that the risks mentioned above have been overly discounted by the stock market and the miners are ready for another big move. In other words, we hope to get a little lucky with market timing but if we don’t we still will make a lot of money for our investors because of our junior mining stock exposure.

I hope this helps clarify what I believe is going on right now.

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:, , ,