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Posts Tagged ‘arbetslöshet’

Dagens graf: Ett av Ben Bernankes många stora problem

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Dagens graf: Den katastrofala återhämtningen i USA

Obama kanske kan lura en del människor att arbetslösheten är nere på löjeväckande 8,9%, även om vi vet att det är den rekordlåga arbetskraften som en del av befolkningen som ligger bakom siffran.

Sannolikt är det dock svårare för Obama att ‘spinna’ grafen nedan som visar hur katastrofal situationen verkligen är.

chart of the day, scariest jobs ever, march 2011

Gallup: Amerikanska arbetslösheten försämrades i februari

Lagom till den senaste sysselsättningspropagandan från den amerikanska motsvarigheten till SCB (kl 1430) kommer en undersökning från Gallup, baserad på hur verkligheten ser ut, som visar på att arbetslösheten försämrades i februari och nu är värre än för ett år sedan.

Den sk U6, som tar med de som bl a är deltidsanställda och vill ha ett fulltidsjobb och de som gett upp att söka efter ett jobb, steg till svindlande 19,9% i februari. Rykten går om att eftermiddagens rapport har manipulerats för att dölja hur det verkligen ser ut. Inget nytt med andra ord.

Mer från Gallup, via ZeroHedge:

Gallup Reports Underemployment Surges To 19.9%, February ”Jobs Situation Deteriorates”: As Bad As 2010

On one hand we have the Department of Truth about to tell tomorrow that NFP based on various seasonal and birth death adjustments increased by 250,000. On the other hand, we have Gallupwhich actually does real time polling without a procyclical propaganda bias. And Gallup does’t have any good news: ”Unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, hit 10.3% in February — up from 9.8% at the end of January. The U.S. unemployment rate is now essentially the same as the 10.4% at the end of February 2010.” And the one indicator that nobody in the mainstream media will touch with a ten foot pole: ”Underemployment, a measure that combines part-time workers wanting full-time work with those who are unemployed, surged in February to 19.9%. This resulted from the combination of a sharp 0.5-point increase since the end of January in the percentage unemployed and a 0.5-point increase in the percentage working part time but wanting full-time work. Underemployment is now higher than it was at this point a year ago (19.7%).”

Unemployment rate:

Gallup's U.S. Unemployment Rate, 2010-2011 Trend

And Underemployment:

U.S. Underemployment, 2010-2011 Trend

A summary of Gallup’s view on February jobs data which likely will be diamterically opposite to what the propaganda machine will spout tomorrow:

Jobs Situation Deteriorates in February

There is essentially no difference between the unemployment rate now and the one at this time a year ago; January’s rate, in contrast, showed a 1.1-percentage-point year-over-year improvement. This suggests that the real U.S. jobs situation worsened in February. That is, jobs are relatively less available now than in January.

In the broader underemployment picture, the situation is much the same. January’s year-over-year improvement of 1.0 points became -0.2 points in February. In turn, this suggests job market conditions in terms of underemployment also worsened during February.

This deterioration in the jobs situation combined with surging gas prices, budget battles at the federal and state level, and declines on Wall Street tend to explain the recent plunge Gallup recorded in consumer confidence. They also align with the continued ”new normal” spending patterns of early 2011. Although Gallup’s Job Creation Index has improved over the past year and showed modest improvement in February, the improvement has not been significant enough to positively affect underemployment and unemployment.

Warren Buffet said Wednesday on CNBC that the U.S. unemployment rate should be in the low 7% range by late 2012. If that is going to be the case, the job creation environment must change dramatically from what it is today.

Kategorier:Statistik Taggar:, , ,

Förklaringen till hur arbetslösheten i USA kunda falla till 9%

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Kategorier:Humor Taggar:, ,

Ytterligare bevis för att BLS manipulation av sysselsättningsstatistiken gör den helt meningslös

Den som mot alla odds behöver ytterligare bevis för att BLS manipulerar den amerikanska sysselsättningsstatistiken, trots den desperata justeringen av arbetskraften för att nå en arbetslöshet om 9% , bör kolla in diagrammet nedan och läsa kommentaren (via Zerohedge). Resultatet: Statistiken från BLS är helt meningslös.

What could possibly be the biggest tell in the BLS tendentious spin of data comes courtesy of the BLS ”period 13” data reporting, which is the full year adjustment the BLS gives at the end of every single year (it can be pulled from BLS data series CEU0000000001). And as John Poehling shows after parsing the data, in 72 years, there have been just 5 positive adjustments. And curiously, of these 5, the two largest ones by a huge margin occurred in the prior 2 years: 2008 and 2009, when year end adjustments (subsequently revised lower in the interim) added a total of 2.2 million jobs for the current administration. In 2010 there was no such luck, as the period 13 revision took out 1,243,000 jobs from the running total.

The bottom line: the average adjustments from 1939 to 2010 is a negative 1,447,000. So why does anyone put any faith in the BLS numbers again please? And a better question: why pretend any economic data matters any more? After all, everything ends up being crushed following final adjustments. As usual – the only thing that does matter, and has over the past 30 years, is how much free money can the Fed pump into the market. Everything else is smoke and mirrors.

David Stockman om den senaste sysselsättningsstatistiken

Rekommenderar att lyssna på vad David Stockman hade att säga om den löjeväckande amerikanska sysselsättningsstatistiken i förra veckan i denna CNBC-intervju (börjar ett par minuter in).

En del av er kanske kommer ihåg följande kommentar från Stockman i ett inlägg nyligen:

“Get some gold, beans, water, anything that Bernanke can’t destroy. Ron Paul is right. We’re entering a global monetary conflagration. If a sell-off of U.S. bonds starts, it will be an Armageddon.”

Här är en kommentar från Dave via sin blogg The Golden Truth:

David Stockman was the Director of the OMB during Reagan’s first term. Even back then he was known as a crusader against deficit spending and the accumulation of Government debt. My estimation of him was raised considerably when he recently was highly critical of Reagonomics and the extension of the Bush tax cuts: ”We’re simply deferring massive taxes unfairly and immorally putting huge debt burdens on future generations and that is just wrong.” Stockman supported the tax cuts under Reagan, but ONLY if they were accompanied by a commensurate amount of spending cuts. They were not…

He was on CNBC Friday for his take on the jobs report: Re CNBC’s reporting on the employement report: ”I heard more spin-control when I came out this morning than I ever heard in the White House.”

On the fraudulently constructed unemployment rate metric of 9%: ”if we had the same [labor force] participation rate this January that we had a year ago…the unemployment rate reported this morning would have been 9.9% rather than 9…the 103.2mm jobs that were in the economy reported this morning is a number that was first reached in October 1999.” Thus there’s been no net job creation over the last 12 years.

And on the Fed money-printing policy: The Fed policy is (so) dangerous. They say they are printing money like there’s no tomorrow…to somehow stimulate jobs when it’s pretty clear that the only thing that’s happening is that all of these new high-powered reserves are flowing into the world economy creating the most vicious commodity hyperinflation”

Ännu en katastrofal amerikansk jobbrapport tvingar BLS att manipulera ner arbetslöshetssiffran till löjeväckande 9%

Det blev inte oväntat ännu en katastrofal jobbrapport från BLS, den amerikanska motsvarigheten till SCB, på fredagen. Antalet nya jobb inom den privata sektorn i januari ökade med 50.000, att jämföra med förväntade 145.000. Som vi tagit upp tidigare så krävs det lite drygt 100.000 nya jobb varje månad bara för att kompensera för befolkningsökningen.

I ett desperat försök att hålla illusionen om en återhämtning vid liv så valde BLS därför att återigen manipulera ner arbetskraften som nu är den lägsta på 26 år. Kolla in den chockerande grafen nedan som visar arbetskraften som en del av befolkningen.

Detta fick den officiella arbetslösheten (U3) att magisk falla med hela 0,4 procentenheter till löjeväckande 9.0%, men om man även räknar med deltidsarbetare som vill arbeta mer och de som vill ha jobb men inte letat på ett tag (U6) stiger siffran till 16,1%. Men, som ZeroHedge påpekar, så var denna siffra säsongsjusterad (läs manipulerad). Om man rensar bort detta så steg U6 till hela 17,3%, den högsta nivån sedan mars 2010.

Men det kanske mest intressanta med dagens rapport är att de personer som inte är inräknade i arbetskraften och samtidigt har givit upp att leta efter ett nytt jobb steg till till den högsta nivån någonsin. Hade dessa personer räknats med, som de borde, skulle den officiella arbetslösheten hamna på hela 12,8%.

ZeroHedge har avslutningsvis gjort sin månadsvisa beräkning av hur många jobb som Obama behöver skapa varje månad fram till november 2016 (dvs under innevarande och en osannolik andra mandatperiod) bara för att kompensera för befolkningsökningen. Denna månad uppgår siffran till omöjliga 246,600 jobb per månad.

Här är ett antal urklipp från ZeroHedge som ger mer information samt grafer som talar sitt tydliga språk:

Highlights

Change in Private Payrolls (Jan) M/M 50K vs. Exp. 145K (Prev. 113K)
• Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan) M/M 49K vs. Exp. 10K (Prev. 10K)
• Seasonally adjusted U-6 underemployment 16.1% from 16.6% previously
Much more importantly, Not-seasonally adjusted U-6 surged from 16.6% to 17.3%!
• The civilian labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186
• Government workers: from 20,759K to 20,740K
Labor force participation at 64.2%, the lowest since March March 1984
• Part-time workers for economic reasons: 8,407
• Part-time workers for non-economic reasons: 17,552
• Birth/Death adjustment: -339,000

Om den manipulerade arbetskraften:

At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian noninstitutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year! As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won’t even show what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge.

Om den historiskt höga U6 siffran:

And another curiously divergent dynamic: looking simply at the Seasonally Adjusted underemployment rate (U-6), which came at 16.1%, or the lowest since April 2009, and one might be excused for assuming that there is a silver lining, somewhere. That is, of course, until taking a look at the sister, NSA series. At 17.3%, this was the highest number since March 2010, and higher than just 3 months in the history of this series.

Om det rekordhöga antalet som givit upp att leta efter arbete:

Probably the last chart to bury any doubt about just how truly horrible today’s employment data was, comes from a little observed data metric: that showing the number of people who are not in the labor force, but who want a job now. The number just hit 6,643K, a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. These are people that would send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). Nothing else needs to be said.

Samt om det faktum att Obama behöver skapa 246,600 nya jobb varje månad:

Every time we revise the attached chart, its looks worse and worse. The first time we did an analysis of how many jobs per month the US has to generate each month to get back to the same payroll number as of November 2007, right before the start of the Greater Depression, and when accounting for the 90K/month natural growth to the labor force, something the administration continues to blissfully ignore (with the labor participation rate plunging to a 26 year low) it was in the mid 220s. As of today, the number is almost quarter of a million, or 246,600. That is how many jobs the US has to generate every single month until November 2016, or the end of Obama’s improbable second turn, for the unemployment rate to get back to where it was when accounting for population growth. And while this is obviously impossible, one other thing that is concerning is that post the revised NFP numbers, not only do we now get a lower cumulative low of all jobs lost, at just over 8.6 million attained in February 2010, but as the highlighted area demonstrates, the recent trend in jobs is one of accelerating deterioration. If in the offchance it were to, gasp, snow in February, March will likely have the first negative NFP print since September. Oh yes, post today’s revisions, we now learn that the months June through September actually lost jobs (granted, inclusive of census adjustments). One thing is certain: 5% unemployment will not be back for the next 5 years. 100% guaranteed.