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Posts Tagged ‘Bernanke’

Bernanke ger ytterligare signaler om QE3

Som vi noterade igår från anteckningarna från FOMC mötet så har ytterligare stimulanser (läs QE3) diskuterats inom Fed. Därför kunde vi mer eller mindre förvänta oss att Bernanke i sitt framträdande i kongressen igår skulle ge ytterligare signaler om att QE3 är på väg.

Och Ben levererade helt som förväntat, eller vad sägs om följande citat:

The central bank will continue to reinvest the original $600 billion into new Treasury securities and not reel the funds in as long as economic growth remains tepid. The possibility remains that the recent economic weakness may prove more persistent than expected and that deflationary risks might reemerge, implying the need for additional policy support.

Guld och silver reagerade givetvis positivt och guld nådde nytt all-time-high om 1590 dollar. Eftersom vi vet att centralbanker och politiker kommer att göra allt för att skjuta upp det oundvikliga så kan vi förvänta oss att betala allt mer fiatpapper för dessa ädla metaller.

Även om många investerare insett detta säkert gläds åt att se sina tillgångar stiga i värde så skall vi inte komma ihåg att den finansiella tsunami som kommer att inträffa innan den slutliga nollställningen kommer inte kommer att vara rolig för någon. Inte minst då vi tidigare i historien har sett krig i samband med denna typ av händelser.

En del noterade kanske att Iran häromdagen provsköt missiler som landade i Indiska Oceanen där två amerikanska hangarfartyg är stationerade. Skulle en sådan provskjutning gå fel eller uppfattas som en provokation av USA skulle det kunna få ödesdigra konsekvenser. USA och Israel har länge velat ‘ta itu’ med Iran och väntar sannolikt på ett tillfälle skall uppenbara sig. Allt fler hävdar att ett krig ‘hänger i luften’.

Kategorier:Centralbanker Taggar:,

Från Bernanke intet nytt

Varken FOMC-mötet eller Bernankes patetiska presskonferens bjöd som väntat på några större nyheter eller överraskningar. Räntan lämnas givetvis oförändrad och Fed sänker även tillväxtprognosen för 2011.

I övrigt var det intressant när Ben skulle försöka förklara hur det kommer sig att tillväxten är så låg trots alla gigantiska stimulanser. Det enda han kunde få ur sig var: “We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting”. Yeah, right. Ben vet mycket väl att det är alla stimulanser som som ligger bakom den lilla tillväxt som finns. Utan stimulanser skulle ekonomin mer eller mindre falla ihop som ett korthus.

Att Ben på något sätt skulle annonsera nästa QE-program var det ingen som räknade med och så blev heller inte fallet. Den största snackisen i detta heta ämne var i övrigt återigen en tweet från Bill Gross, som förutspår att det ännu en gång blir i samband med Kansas Fed-symposiet i Jackson Hole i augusti som ytterligare QE kommer att börja diskuteras på allvar.

Här är Goldman’s kommentar till presskonferensen (via ZeroHedge):

BOTTOM LINE: Bernanke downplays likelihood of QE3 due to reduced deflation risks.

MAIN POINTS:

1. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference included many details but few major surprises. On activity, he expressed relatively low conviction, saying “We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting” (note that quotes come from the real-time transcript, which may be revised slightly). However, consistent with the FOMC’s forecasts (see below), he emphasized that he thought that some factors restraining growth were temporary.

2. On inflation, Chairman Bernanke also cited temporary factors, particularly a pickup in auto prices related to supply chain disruptions in that sector.

3. Guidance on the near-term policy outlook was relatively clear: more quantitative easing is unlikely due to reduced deflation risks. He gave two lengthy responses on this issue, and made clear why conditions last year differed from today. Most importantly: “at that time inflation was low and falling, [and] many objective indicators suggested that deflation was a non trivial risk”. He also noted the pickup in payroll employment over the last few quarters.

4. At the same time, his remarks hinted that the FOMC has in fact discussed easing options. Specifically, he said options could include: 1) securities purchases, which could be structured in various ways; 2) a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves; 3) guidance on how long the Fed will wait to sell securities; and 4) or “a fixed date to define extended period”. With regard to the extended period language, he revised his remarks from the last press conference, in which he said the extended period language meant “there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”. Today he said: “I think the thrust of extended period is that we believe we’re at least two or three meetings away from taking any further action, and I emphasize ‘at least.’”

5. The Fed revised down its central tendency forecasts for GDP growth in 2011 to 2.7-2.9% to from 3.1-3.3%. It also reduced its 2012 GDP forecasts. For 2011, the cut was slightly smaller than we had expected, but for 2012 it was a bit larger. The committee also revised up its forecast for core inflation by 1-2 tenths, a bit more than we had anticipated.

Kategorier:QE Taggar:, , ,

Vad Bernanke hade att säga om räntetak innan han blev Fed-chef

Följande artikel från Reuters är mycket intressant. Notera vad Bernanke hade att säga om att sätta ett räntetak på 2-åriga statspapper 2002 innan han tog över från Greenspan. Detta var något som prövades på 60-talet i vad som kom att kallas ‘Operation Twist‘.

Man får allt mer en känsla av att det är just detta som kommer att vara ursäkten för att kunna fortsätta med QE utan att behöva kalla det för QE3, precis som Gross och Rosenberg talat om nyligen. Nästa onsdag är det presskonferens med Ben och vi får se om han levererar en ‘twist’ redan då (även om det inte är troligt).

Gross tweets Fed will curb Treasury yields

NEW YORK, June 15 (Reuters) – Bill Gross said the Federal Reserve next week could signal that interest rates could be capped if warranted due to soft economic growth.

The world’s largest bond fund manager said on Twitter late Tuesday: ”QE3 likely to take form of ‘extended period’ language or interest rate caps on 2-3-year Treasuries.”

Gross, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, the world’s top bond manager, also said on Twitter: ”Next week’s Fed statement will likely stress ‘extended period of time’ language or even a period of interest rate caps.”

The Fed will hold its next policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and will issue its policy statement after the close of the meeting.

The recent soft patch of economic data has increased speculation over whether U.S. policymakers will perform a third round of bond purchases, an unconventional monetary measure known as ”quantitative easing,” or QE2. The second round of QE2’s $600 billion in purchases will conclude on June 30.

But Gross tweeted that the Fed could signal a cap on interest rates as a form of QE3.

Mark Porterfield, spokesman for PIMCO, confirmed to Reuters the content of the tweets. Pacific Investment Management Co. oversees more than $1.2 trillion in assets.

While the 10-year Treasury bond is one of the most widely watched securities as it sets the benchmark for almost every other interest rate in the U.S. economy, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has long considered the two-year Treasury note as an effective tool.

In a November 2002 speech, entitled ”Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here,” Bernanke said: ”Because long-term interest rates represent averages of current and expected future short-term rates, plus a term premium, a commitment to keep short-term rates at zero for some time–if it were credible–would induce a decline in longer-term rates.”

Bernanke, who at the time was a Federal Reserve governor, went on to say that the two-year Treasury note is a long-term maturity and that 10-year notes are ”longer” maturing securities.

Bernanke said: ”A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (say, bonds maturing within the next two years).

”The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targetedyields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well.”

Kategorier:Centralbanker, QE Taggar:, , , ,

Dagens bild: Bernanke Crime Family

Kategorier:Humor Taggar:

Gott nytt år!

Kategorier:Guld, Humor Taggar:,

God Jul

24 december, 2010 1 kommentar

Kategorier:Humor Taggar:

Marknaden gör narr av Ben efter sitt beslut att förstöra dollarn

Så många underhållande kommentarer och analyser dagen efter Bens chockerande, men långt ifrån oväntade, QE2-paket. Bland de mer underhållande kommer, inte oväntat, från våra frispråkiga vänner på Zero Hedge där man som vanligt inte spar på krutet.

Yesterday’s Ben Bernanke penned an Op-Ed in which he essentially said: ”I am doing whatever I interpret my mandate to be, which right now means only thing: Dow 36,000. I am only accountable to the private bank that is the Federal Reserve, a few Wall Street CEOs, and no one else. Congress has no power over me. Try to stop me.” And while the stock market is so far in love with this exhibition of outright hubris which promises record bonuses even as a record number of Americans subsist on foodstamps and real, not BLS, unemployment is over 20%, putting the Chairman in a long-overdue strait jacket will ultimately require an outright clash between those who still believe in that piece paper called the constitution and the kleptocratic cartel to whom the trade-off between a senior bond impairment and their first born is never all that clear. And while more and more try to educate a hypnotized, strategically defaulting US society what QE2 means to their future, the rest of the world is already rising in a tidal wave of disapproval aimed at the Federal Reserve. As the FT reports, Brazil, China, German, and Thailand, and soon everyone else, have already voiced thighest criticism and their condemnation of this escalation in FX wars.

Här är ett underhållande klipp med David Stockman som var chef för Office of Management and Budget under Reagan där han bland annat säger följande:

”When you tell politicians they can issue $100 billion of debt a month for free, how do you expect them to do the right thing, and ask their constituents to sacrifice… I think the Fed is injecting high grade monetary heroin into the financial system of the world, and one of these days it is going to kill the patient.

Förutom en mängd underhållande kommentarer så gjorde marknaden definitivt narr av Ben med sitt beslut att skicka upp guld nytt all-time-high (1393) och silver exploderade till nytt 30-årshögsta (26,28). Lycka till med att förklara bort detta Ben!

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, Guld, QE, silver Taggar:, , ,