Archive

Posts Tagged ‘Bill Gross’

Från Bernanke intet nytt

Varken FOMC-mötet eller Bernankes patetiska presskonferens bjöd som väntat på några större nyheter eller överraskningar. Räntan lämnas givetvis oförändrad och Fed sänker även tillväxtprognosen för 2011.

I övrigt var det intressant när Ben skulle försöka förklara hur det kommer sig att tillväxten är så låg trots alla gigantiska stimulanser. Det enda han kunde få ur sig var: “We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting”. Yeah, right. Ben vet mycket väl att det är alla stimulanser som som ligger bakom den lilla tillväxt som finns. Utan stimulanser skulle ekonomin mer eller mindre falla ihop som ett korthus.

Att Ben på något sätt skulle annonsera nästa QE-program var det ingen som räknade med och så blev heller inte fallet. Den största snackisen i detta heta ämne var i övrigt återigen en tweet från Bill Gross, som förutspår att det ännu en gång blir i samband med Kansas Fed-symposiet i Jackson Hole i augusti som ytterligare QE kommer att börja diskuteras på allvar.

Här är Goldman’s kommentar till presskonferensen (via ZeroHedge):

BOTTOM LINE: Bernanke downplays likelihood of QE3 due to reduced deflation risks.

MAIN POINTS:

1. Fed Chairman Bernanke’s press conference included many details but few major surprises. On activity, he expressed relatively low conviction, saying “We don’t have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting” (note that quotes come from the real-time transcript, which may be revised slightly). However, consistent with the FOMC’s forecasts (see below), he emphasized that he thought that some factors restraining growth were temporary.

2. On inflation, Chairman Bernanke also cited temporary factors, particularly a pickup in auto prices related to supply chain disruptions in that sector.

3. Guidance on the near-term policy outlook was relatively clear: more quantitative easing is unlikely due to reduced deflation risks. He gave two lengthy responses on this issue, and made clear why conditions last year differed from today. Most importantly: “at that time inflation was low and falling, [and] many objective indicators suggested that deflation was a non trivial risk”. He also noted the pickup in payroll employment over the last few quarters.

4. At the same time, his remarks hinted that the FOMC has in fact discussed easing options. Specifically, he said options could include: 1) securities purchases, which could be structured in various ways; 2) a cut in the interest rate on excess reserves; 3) guidance on how long the Fed will wait to sell securities; and 4) or “a fixed date to define extended period”. With regard to the extended period language, he revised his remarks from the last press conference, in which he said the extended period language meant “there would be a couple of meetings probably before action”. Today he said: “I think the thrust of extended period is that we believe we’re at least two or three meetings away from taking any further action, and I emphasize ‘at least.’”

5. The Fed revised down its central tendency forecasts for GDP growth in 2011 to 2.7-2.9% to from 3.1-3.3%. It also reduced its 2012 GDP forecasts. For 2011, the cut was slightly smaller than we had expected, but for 2012 it was a bit larger. The committee also revised up its forecast for core inflation by 1-2 tenths, a bit more than we had anticipated.

Kategorier:QE Taggar:, , ,

Vet Bill Gross något om QE3 (aka cupcakes) som vi inte vet?

Bill Gross är i farten igen och antyder i en tweet att Fed i nästa vecka kommer att presentera en plan på ett tak på 2- och 3-åriga statspappersräntor som ursäkt för att kunna fortsätta med QE. Med tanke på Bills kontaktnät så är detta inte omöjligt och något som David Rosenberg faktiskt talat om nyligen (även om han då talade om 10-åriga statspapper).

Mer via ZeroHedge:

Bill Gross Warns QE3 Is Coming In The Form Of ”Operation Twist” For The 2 Year

Bill Gross released a very troubling tweet earlier:

Why is it odd? Because as David Rosenberg predicted two weeks ago when he expected that Operation Twist could be coming back with the Fed ”capping” the 10 Year, Bill Gross, who has Larry ”Fed Expert Network” Meyer in his ear and thus knows better than most what is coming, is predicting some ”Twisting” though not at the 10 Year mark, but at the very short end. This is very disturbing. Because as we suggested at the end of May, QE3 will in reality be Operation Twist 2…

This means that Rosie’s prediction that ”the Fed would basically lose control of its balance sheet” could be about to come true, and in fact be far worse than expected, because it would mean that not only is the Fed no longer able to control the 10 Year but is concerned about controlling the 2-3 Year sector, a place on the curve that the Fed chairman has typically never had much to worry about.

Incidentally, we wondered earlier why not a single OTR 2 Year bond was tendered to the Fed during today’s POMO. Here is you answer: why sell today at 0.44% when you can wait a month and sell them back to Brian Sack at 0.00%

Below we repost the article from May 31, as this topic may suddenly be everything that people are talking about.

In Preparation Of The Fed’s Last Doubling Down: David Rosenberg Believes QE3 Will Be Nothing Short Of ”Operation Twist 2”

Kategorier:QE Taggar:,

Bill Gross går kort amerikanska statspapper

För en dryg månad sedan överraskade Bill Gross marknaden med att helt göra sig av med amerikanska statspapper i PIMCOs Total Return Fund, världens största obligationsfond.

Enligt ZeroHedge har Gross nu till och med gått ännu längre och går kort amerikanska statspapper, samtidigt som andelen kontanter nu är hela 31%.

Gross senaste tilltag innebär att han går från snack till handling och därmed sätter fondens pengar på spel. Om han har rätt så väntar något mycket otrevligt runt hörnet och jag tror vi alla vet vad.

Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record

A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure. This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill – it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry). In March, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world’s largest ”bond” fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO’s holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below). This is the first net short position that PIMCO has had in Government-related debt since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, and going positive in February of 2009 only after it became clear that the Fed would commence monetizing US debt one month later. This is the closest that Gross has come to making a political statement and is now without doubt putting his money where his mouth is. The only event that could possibly derail Gross’ thinking is a huge market crash forcing a rush to Treasury safety. Alas, as has been made all too clear recently, US debt is no longer the safe haven it once was. Which begs the question: when will the TRF break out a ”gold” asset holdings line item.

And another side effect of the firm’s scramble away from debt and into cash is that the effective duration of TRF is now down to 3.6: only the second lowest since the 3.38 posted in December of 2008… when the world was on the verge of ending.

That Bill Gross is willing to risk a surge in redemptions (after all who would be wiling to pay PIMCO to manage a third of their assets in the form of supposedly devaluating cash) in order to make a statement about the credibility of the US government, and specifically the viability of its IOUs, is easily the only thing that the US government has to consider when evaluating the prospects for funding trillions and trillions of US deficits at ”acceptable” rates in the absence of further quantitative easing by the Chairman.

If Gross is indeed right, something very wicked this way comes.

Bill Gross: USA kommer sannolikt defaulta på sin statsskuld

Bill Gross, som nyligen beslutade dumpa hela sitt innehav av amerikanska obligationer i PIMCOs Total Return Fund (världens största obligationsfond), har skrivit ett intressant brev med titeln ”Skunked” där han talar om att USA sannolikt kommer att defaulta på sin statsskuld.

Även om det inte kommer som någon direkt överraskning för läsare av denna bloggen, så är det givetvis alltid intressant att notera när det kommer från en person som Gross som definitivt vet vad han talar om.

Här är en kommentar och länk till ”Skunked” från ZeroHedge:

”Skunked”: Bill Gross On How ”The U.S. Will Likely Default On Its Debt”

In a letter focusing on what has been well known to Zero Hedge readers for about two years now, Bill Gross’ latest investment outlook does the usual attack of Beltway stupidity (as if Congress is in any way competent of making math-related decisions – they do what Wall Street – that’s you Bill! – tell them to do, and you know it), emphasizing the impossible math of total US entitlement liabilities (on a net present value basis), which Gross estimates at $75 trillion. That Gross conclusion is predetermined from the onset is not surprising: ”Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.” Then again, that America is bankrupt is not really news to anyone. Neither is it news, that Gross, as we first reported, no longer has any US bonds to dispose of. What will be news is the inflection point at which Gross starts purchasing Treasuries once again. And after all with $220 billion in AUM in the Total Return Fund, what else will he do: hold on to cash? Buy Netflix? Then the only question will be how Gross spins the inevitable capitulation of the re-hypocrisy trade, validating that he, in a narrow sense, and PIMCO in a broad one, is perhaps the biggest cog in the very system that Bill spends so many hours writing letters about and complaining against. But yes, even that won’t be all that surprising to us. After all, in this bizarro world absolutely everything is now priced in.

Kategorier:Statsfinanser Taggar:,

PIMCO lämnar det sjunkande skeppet, dumpar sina amerikanska statspapper

På onsdagen framkom det att PIMCOs Total Return Fund, som är världens största obligationsfond, har dumpat alla sina amerikanska statspapper. Vi har flera gånger tidigare skrivit om den gigantiska statsfinansiella bubblan och det verkar helt klart som om Bill Gross, som förvaltar fonden, känner att det nu är dags att lämna skeppet innan det sjunker.

Bill hör till de mest pålästa och smarta förvaltarna i världen, varför detta är en otroligt viktig signal. En fallande obligationsmarknad kommer på sikt att leda till en massflykt till fysisk guld och silver.

Här är en artikel från Reuters:

PIMCO Total Return dumps U.S. government-related debt

NEW YORK (Reuters) – PIMCO’s Total Return Fund , the world’s biggest bond fund, has dumped all U.S. government-related securities, including Treasuries and agency debt, a source familiar with the fund’s holdings said on Wednesday.

In January, Pacific Investment Management Co.’s $236.9 billion Total Return fund slashed its U.S. government-related debt holdings to the lowest level in at least two years and increased cash and debt holdings from other developed nations.

Government-related securities include Treasuries, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, agencies, interest rate swaps, Treasury futures and options, and corporate securities guaranteed by the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The Total Return Fund’s cash holdings had surged to $54.5 billion as of February 28 from $11.9 billion at the end of January. A PIMCO spokesman declined to comment for this story.

Bill Gross, the fund’s manager who helps oversee more than $1.1 trillion as PIMCO’s co-chief investment officer, has often railed against U.S. deficit spending and its inflationary impact. He has advocated buying bonds with ”safe,” higher yields — such as corporate bonds — that can withstand possible erosion of returns by inflation.

In December, PIMCO said it may start investing up to 10 percent of its assets in ”equity-related” securities, such as convertibles and preferred stock, after the first quarter of 2011.

”It’s certainly an important signal in the sense that they are allocating away from Treasuries in favor of a higher spread product,” said Christian Cooper, head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading at Jefferies & Co.

Och det här är vad en före detta PIMCO anställd hade att säga om betydelsen av denna händelse (via ZeroHedge):

This is a very big deal and the only time to my knowledge the fund has ever moved total US Treasury holdings to 0%.

To give this call some perspective, the PIMCO Total Return Fund is managed vs. the BarCap Aggregrate Total Return Index (this is the former LBAGG or Lehman Brothers Aggregrate).  The BarCap Agg index has a total allocation to US Government securities of around 40% (link here).  This means that PIMCO is underweight its bogey in US Treasuries by about 40 % which in the bond market is a MASSIVE underweight.  PIMCO has also reduced duration in the fund to 3.89 years which is the lowest since December 2008 at the height of the liquidity crisis.

Why is this significant?

Having worked at PIMCO for 4.5 years, I can tell you that this kind of a major allocation decision was not reached overnight nor was it reached without considerable debate by every senior member of the firm.  In other words, the decision to lower total US Treasuries to 0% was discussed by senior portfolio managers, senior account managers and many prominent outside consultants for days and perhaps even weeks before it was finally implemented.  They never do anything over there without vigorous debate and discussion.  For example, Alan Greenspan is a paid consultant to the firm and often participates in their quarterly Secular Outlook meetings.  I don’t know if Mr. Greenspan participated in the debate about this decision but I wouldn’t be surprised if he or others of his stature did.

By this move PIMCO is clearly indicating, almost by putting their reputation on the line because imagine the underperformance they face if they are wrong, that bond yields in the US will be rising soon, US Treasury prices falling and liquidity drying up to some degree.

Does this move make sense?

While it’s impossible to know the future, in my opinion this is something that should NOT be ignored.  The S&P has rallied about 25% on pure QE2 since late-August 2010 which is not organic or sustainable.  Commodity prices have surged and it is becoming well-documented that many companies are having a hard time passing along price increases without facing demand destruction: this leads to margin compression.  If rates do rise as PIMCO suggests, add into the mix a cost of capital that could go up by at least the move in Treasuries which Gross argues should be at least 150bps to compensate Treasury investors for their risk.  Which means that cost of capital could go up by at least 150bps while input costs are rising, margins are compressing and liquidity drying up.  This is a sure recipe for a sell-off so yes, I think this move by PIMCO makes sense.

Another thing to consider is that because of their sheer size in the fixed income market, PIMCO is a market mover no matter what they do.  So simply not being in the US Treasury market means a huge buyer is missing and rates will rise simply due to this supply/demand imbalance so to some extent, PIMCO can make interest rates go up all by themselves by simply not buying.  Very few organizations on the planet can exert this kind of pressure on rates outside of central banks.