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Posts Tagged ‘James McShirley’

80% sannolikhet ÄR bevis på manipulation

I samband med GATAs konferens i London för lite drygt ett år sedan hade jag nöjet att lyssna till James McShirley, som med sin enorma ammunition av statistik över guldprisets rörelser genom åren gjorde både mig och sannolikt alla som lyssnade övertygade om att guldpriset ÄR manipulerat.

Förhoppningsvis kommer ‘Liborgate’ att medföra ett litet ‘uppvaknande’ bland de som fortfarande slumrar.

Här är ett rykande färskt inlägg från James där han sammanställer de mest sannolika manipulationerna av guldpriset.

80% probability IS proof of manipulation

The most overwhelming statistical anomaly is merely the sheer quantity of anomalous manipulations. Most all of these gold manipulations have at least an 80% chance of occurring. To me this is the most incredible part of gold rigging, that certain patterns have 80% or more probabilities of success of happening. Some gold riggings, such as the 1% and 2% rule have closer to 90% probabilities. This can only happen with either official blessing or incredibly deep pockets, or both. Here are 17 manipulations I have either statistically identified with certainty, or am nearly certain have 80% or more chances. I’m sure there are even more if anybody wants to research it further.

* NY trading hours the predominant selling, Asia, others the predominant buying.

* PM fix either lower, or no higher than $5 than the AM fix.

* Gold trading higher from last PM fix on Friday to 1st AM fix on following Monday.

* 1% rule and 2% rule.

* The 2%, 1%, steady, down hard pattern.

* Percentage of sudden, violent plunges drastically exceeds any sudden gains.

* Outside key reversal day negation.

* Technical breakout negation.

* Failed follow-through rally after big daily gain.

* Selloff on jobs report day.

* Selloff on Fed speak day.

* Selloff on London close.

* Selloff on Comex open, or by 9:00AM.

* Selloff tipped off in advance by declining gold stocks just prior.

* Selloff tipped off in advance by weak silver trading just prior.

* Selloff at 3:00 AM signaling upcoming NY Comex weakness.

* A top is reached even when the majority of pundits and ”experts” are calling it.

Friday was the 2% cap job on a rally. Monday was the failed follow-through rally after a big daily gain. Yesterday and today have been Fed speak days, and totally consistent with the long-standing statistical anomalies in all 4 days gold either got capped precisely, or got pressured. The statistical evidence clearly shows gold manipulation is systemic, daily, and on both a micro and macro level.

James Mc

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Kategorier:Guld Taggar:,

Har kartellen ett tak på runt 25% för guldets årliga uppgång?

De av er som regelbundet följer ädelmetallmarknaden har med all sannolikt noterat kartellens vanliga taktik med att trycka till metallerna innan termins- och optionslösen samtidigt som myndigheterna tittar åt andra hållet. Det finns tyvärr lite vi kan göra åt detta, annat än att vidta lämpliga åtgärder på kort sikt. Lyckades själv sälja av hela min tradingportfölj innan nedgången, vilket så här i efterhand visade sig vara ett bra drag.

December hör till de viktigare lösenmånaderna och MF Global-kollapsen kan ha bidragit till att göra den än viktigare. Rykten gör gällande att ett antal kunder planerade att stå för leverans i december, vilket skulle kunna ha skapat oerhörda problem för framförallt JP Morgan. Ett tecken på att dessa rykten inte helt kan avfärdas är att JPM häromdagen flyttade över en mycket ovanligt stor mängd silver till den sk ‘registered’ kategorin, dvs det som finns tillgängligt i lager för leverans. Något är på gång helt klart. Kanske är det början på ‘”the run on the silver bank”.

Flera av er känner säkert till James McShirley, som bevakat kartellens aktiviteter under en lång tid och presenterat mer eller mindre obestridbara bevis för manipulationen. Hade själv nöjet att lyssna till James presentation vid GATAs konferens i London i augusti.

Fann följande kommentar från James häromdagen mycket intressant och kanske kan den intressera även en del av er:

It’s obvious that there is real forceful opposition to gold getting past the $1,770- $1,790 area. I’m sure Dec. op. ex. and FND is significant, but there is likely another reason in play. The $1,770 – $1,7790 area could also be due to yet another cartel limit, this one being the maximum yearly gold gain allowed. Just like the 2% daily rule there is no other commodity that I can find that has had such consistent gains on a yearly basis the past decade. In fact at $1,777 gold has gained 26.6% for 2011, virtually IDENTICAL to the gains for both 2010 and 2009. ( +26.6% and +26.9%) Furthermore if you take the 8 best years of the past decade, (throwing out 2008) the average is +24.8%. Oddly enough (or not) that is an average of …. wait for it, … 2% per month. Like most peculiarities surrounding gold this can’t be a coincidence, and is certainly indicative of the level of manipulation when considered in total. The evidence suggests the cartel has maximum allowed gains not only on a daily basis, but probably even weekly, monthly, and even yearly bases. As time permits I intend to research weekly and monthly gold gains, which I believe will also show a similar manipulated pattern.

Regardless of the cause of the pressure the upcoming week looks stacked against friends of gold. If December continues the trend of ”consolidation” as MSM calls it, then 2012 could quickly develop into some spectacular gains. $1,780 X 126.6% = $2,253.50 for 2012? Statistically it has a 100% chance since 2009, and an 88.9% chance since 2002. Let’s get those standard deviation from norm modelers out there to help calculate this stuff!

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:, ,