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Jim Sinclair: Guld på väg mot 12500 USD för att balansera USAs utländska statsskuld

De som följer Jim Sinclairs blog har kanske redan noterat att Jim nyligen berättade att guld (enligt en formel) behöver stiga till drygt 12500 dollar för att balansera den utländska delen av den amerikanska statsskulden och att det är till denna nivå som guld är på väg. Det är säkert en del som kommer att skratta åt detta påstående, men det var det många som även gjorde när Jim påstod att guld skulle stiga till 1650 dollar för drygt tio år sedan. Tror Jim kommer att få rätt ännu en gång.

Rekommenderar att ta del av vad Jim har att säga i denna intervju med King World News.

Annonser
Kategorier:Guld Taggar:, ,

Jim Sinclair: Vi är inte i närheten av en topp för guld

Jim Sinclair har intervjuats av King World News och hade bl a följande att säga:

The bonds are indicating that the psychology which is most supportive to gold is returning to the market place. And the action in gold after the recent reaction in gold, is so stout, so strong, as is silver itself, so stout, so strong in its recovery, that the only conclusion that you can come to is that we have not established a top in silver and clearly we’re nowhere near a top in gold.

Om silver:

The recovery in silver, the fact that it got plowed down, but its character now seems to deny the recent break, I think silver is acting very, very well and as previously stated, I don’t believe we’ve seen a top in silver yet.

Om guld:

$1,764 is calling on gold now and the market is reacting to it. It is calling, it is the magnet pulling most heavily on gold right now.

Om gruvorna:

I know what kind of money these companies are going to make. I understand what kind of cash flow that can be generated from this type of price on gold. There is no way on earth at this point that the hedge funds (short miners) are going to be correct. In fact they are the ostriches with their heads in the sand. No share will remain under pressure of a hedge fund when it begins to put out the type of cash flow that the price of gold now will result in.

Om 5000 dollar är rimligt för guld:

It’s not unreasonable because there’s nothing that you need to add to the present problem, it’s all done. You really don’t need a QE3, QE1 & QE2 have taken care of everything that would be necessary to put gold at those kind of prices. It’s (gold) is going to eclipse that (1980) mania, but it’s not going to do the pratfall that took place in 1980. This time gold is finding its way back into the monetary system.

…This market isn’t the average guy, this market isn’t the average multi-millionaire, this market is giants and those giants are not bearish.

Hela intervjun med Jim kommer att släppas senare idag och kommer att finnas här.

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:,

James Turk: Vi är veckor ifrån rekordnivåer för silver

James Turk har både gjort en ny intervju med King World News samt skrivit ihop ett exklusivt inlägg för KWNs läsare som är intressanta att ta del av.

Turk om guld:

I’m taking my cue here from the mining stocks. The XAU once again held above the 200 level which has been the bottom of its trading range. That suggests to me that both the mining shares and gold are sold out here and due for a big bounce.”

The action in gold this week will be important as strength here will indicate the beginning of a move back toward its record high. I expect that high to be probed by the end of this month. After all Eric, nothing has fundamentally changed. The dead cat bounce in the dollar has not altered the bullish outlook for gold.

Turk om silver:

At times like this it is important to stand back and take a look at the big picture. So the key point here Eric is to focus on the chart (above) which does a great job of illustrating this. If we put last week’s price drop into context and focus on all of the factors that have been driving silver higher for ten years, it’s logical to conclude that the big price jump in silver is still ahead of us.

Eventually there will be a mania in silver, but in the fullness of time what we just witnessed will be seen as a first act. The fact is that the final parabola in silver during the climax of the third stage or manic phase will be one for the history books.

https://i2.wp.com/kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/9_James_Turk_-_Silver_Will_Hit_New_Highs_in_a_Matter_of_Weeks_files/shapeimage_24.png
Och här är inlägget från James Turk:

Silver’s Correction – We’ve Been Here Before

By James Turk, Founder of GoldMoney.com

May 9 (King World News) At times like this it is important to stand back and take a look at the big picture.  So the key point here is to focus on the chart above which does a great job of illustrating this point.  If we put last week’s price drop into context and focus on all of the factors that have been driving silver higher for ten years, it’s logical to conclude that the big price jump in silver is still ahead of us.

Silver’s price drop last week has been variously called historic, extraordinary and unprecedented.  It was none of those, as is clear from the following chart.  We’ve been here before.

Note the four red ovals.  All four outline similar drops in price over short periods of time.

This chart is prepared on a log scale so that the distances shown on the chart can easily be compared in percentage terms.  In other words, last week’s drop in the silver price from near $50 is essentially no different in percentage terms from the drop that occurred once $15 was approached in 2006 or the drop after $8 was reached in 2004.  In both of these prior instances, silver bottomed after the drop, marking a level from which it climbed to eventually make a new high.

The drop in silver’s price in 2008 was different.  Silver continued lower, breaking down from the red oval, but we all know why that happened.  Lehman Brothers had collapsed, and in the subsequent rush for liquidity, every asset class was hit – even gold and silver.  It was a classic example of the ‘baby being thrown out with the bath water’.

So what is ahead for this current correction?  Repeats of 2004 and 2006, or another 2008?  My guess is none of the above.  It took several months after these three previous corrections before silver climbed above the high price that preceded the correction.  This time I expect silver will take only several weeks before exceeding $49.78, the 31-year high reached on April 25th. The reason?

As evidenced by silver’s backwardation, which began in January and continues to this day, the demand for physical silver has really accelerated.  As a result of last week’s price decline, backwardation has roughly doubled in size.  This is clearly a a signal of strong demand for physical silver, and further evidence of a point I have been making for some time, that the paper silver market is losing its significance as a price discovery mechanism.

Kategorier:silver Taggar:,

Ben Davies: Vi är nu köpare av fysiskt silver

Tidigare rapporterade vi om att Peter Grandich har klivit in och börjat köpa guld och silver igen. I följande intervju med King World News berättar Ben Davies att Hinde Capital numera också är köpare av fysiskt silver. Regelbundna läsare kanske kommer ihåg att Ben korrekt förutspådde den kraftiga nedgången vi sett för silver, vilket ger extra tyngd bakom vad han har att säga.

As a firm we have covered all of our hedges on silver and we have started to accumulate physical silver.  Let me add that this is the swiftest 30+% decline in this bull market.  If you are a cash buyer of physical silver then you should now be accumulating silver.  There is always a danger in catching a falling knife, but you have to remember that silver has intrinsic value.”

Nonetheless we are keeping an eye on the US dollar which could continue having a bounce post Trichet’s comments.  There’s clearly an unwind of commodity positions in general with crude down almost 10%.  The market in silver is extremely oversold and it would not surprise me to see a bounce overnight in Asian trading.

We have seen a 10 standard deviation move in silver on multiple periodicities that we track, the likes of which we haven’t yet experienced in this bull market.  I want to reiterate that Hinde fundamentally believes that the silver market had reached a point of criticality at this last peak whereby the market was vulnerable to a swift and violent correction irrespective of any external trigger and that is what occurred.

In our opinion, such moves as we just experienced in the paper silver market have been exacerbated by system traders exiting the market.  This last decline today was more a function of liquidation due to margin calls as a function of the whole commodity sector selling off.

This is the start of a great opportunity to accumulate silver.  All of the key fundamental issues in the world have not gone away nor those specific to silver such as the fact that it is under-owned and short of supply in the medium-term.  All of those conditions are still in place for silver.  KWN readers should remember that on corrections beyond 20% in a secular bull market you are supposed to be buying.

Davies om guld:

The gold market has been dragged down with the precipitous fall in silver, but we believe gold will hold above $1,450.  We believe between now and August we will find a floor and the next up leg in gold will begin.  That next leg higher in gold should take us over $2,000.

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:,

Dan Norcini om utvecklingen för silver och gruvorna

King World News har intervjuat Dan Norcini som bl a ger sin kommentar till den dramatiska utvecklingen för silver och vad vi kan vänta oss för gruvorna.

I want to address the silver backwardation issue.  Many investors and traders feel that silver should not be dropping in price because of the backwardation structure.  They point to this fact as proof that silver is in short supply and demand is phenomenal.

That may be entirely true, I don’t know, but the fact is that when we are dealing with the Comex silver market we are dealing with a paper market.  Keep in mind that hedge funds that trade the paper markets do not care about fundamentals.  They are pure technicians who rely solely on their computer trading algorithms to make trading decisions.  These algorithms are utterly indifferent to the realities in the physical market.

The bottom line is once these algorithms move into a sell mode, the hedge funds will unload until they’ve exhausted their selling, regardless of the physical market structure.  Meaning the paper market does not care about the physical market.

Norcini om gruvorna:

It’s evident that while the metals were moving strongly to the upside, the mining shares were lagging dramatically.  In my opinion, this is the effect of the ratio spread trade that I have discussed on KWN many times in the past.

The ratio between the HUI and the gold price had gotten so far out of whack as a result of this spread trade that either the shares had to move higher to catch up to the metals or the metals had to move lower to close the gap between them and the shares.  At some point I think the shares are going to catch up to the gold price.  For this to be remedied you need to have the shares strongly outperform gold to the upside at some point.

Because they (gold shares) so severely underperformed against the metals, I think the shares will bottom first before the metals will.  It looks to me Eric like we may have had the shares bottom today.  We just need to see today’s low hold for a short period of time in order to see this confirmed.  If this turns out to be the case, it most likely means the metals will bottom shortly thereafter.

Kategorier:Guld, silver Taggar:, , ,

Eric Sprott: Sprott äger mer fysiskt silver än någonsin

King World News har intervjuat Eric Sprott för att få hans kommentar till uppgifterna om att Sprott Asset Management (SAM) sålt delar av sitt innehav i den egna fysiska silverfonden PSLV, som vi skrev om igår.

Det visar sig att Sprott inte bara återinvesterat likviden i silver utan att SAM äger mer fysiskt silver än någonsin tidigare, vilket säkert lugnar en del oroliga silverinvesterare. Sprott ser inte oväntat att silver på sikt kommer att stiga till nya rekordnivåer.

Här är Sprotts kommentar:

Any proceeds that we’ve received from selling PSLV have immediately gone back into silver or other silver equities.  And I can tell you we have the highest position in physical ownership that we’ve ever had, and we have not lost one ounce of our encouragement for the outlook for the silver price.

I sort of regard the things that are going on in the (silver) market as basically some group of traders working to get the price down quickly, particularly the overnight action on Sunday night when it (silver) goes from $48 to $42 in whatever it was, 9 or 13 minutes.  It’s a travesty of a trading system that would happen.  

We’ve been committed to silver and the fundamentals for silver and people’s interest in silver, so it would be massively incorrect to suggest we think silver has hit a high.  We don’t think that at all, I’ve suggested it (silver) should trade at a ratio of one to sixteen to gold.  Gold I am sure will be $1,600 not too long from now, and by implication that would suggest it (silver) could trade up to $100 and I’m not shying away from that.

Sprott om storleken på försäljningen:

Well, relative to what we owned it was an incredibly small sale.  As a portfolio manager we have to manage the portfolio and there were other things that were underperforming PSLV that we thought we should reinvest our money in so that’s exactly what we did, all in the silver area…Our position in silver today in physical ounces is higher than it’s ever been.

Här är en länk för den som vill lyssna till hela intervjun med Sprott.

Kategorier:silver Taggar:, ,

Ben Davies: Guld kan lätt avancera $400 när vi passerar $1440

I sin senaste intervju med King World News berättar Ben Davies bl a att han tror att guld lätt kan avancera $400 när vi väl passerar $1440.

Det har knappast undgått någon hur guld har stött på kartellens pappersförsäljare kring $1440 sedan en tid tillbaka, varför denna nivå, som Ben påpekar, är mycket viktig att passera. Det är också värt att notera att guld, till skillnad från silver som kartellen har enorma svårigheter att hålla tillbaka tack vara det obefintliga fysiska utbudet, har konsoliderat kring $1400 i drygt ett halvår och nu är mer än redo för nästa uppgångsfas.

Som Ben påpekar så kan ett besked om att QE stoppas tillfälligt få guld (och silver) på fall, men eftersom det i så fall bara är en tidsfråga innan QE återupptas i någon form (eftersom marknaden annars mer eller mindre skulle kollapsa) så är det inget som den långsiktige behöver oroa sig över.

Här är intervjun med Ben Davies:

The reasons why I believe there is potential for gold to catch up on the upside is that $1,440 level that we have talked about so many times on the show, I mean it’s amazing how that has capped the market, and I said we have to get through $1,440. Once we are through that level on a weekly closing basis we’re going to get discovery which in my opinion can easily take the gold market up $400.

And that’s the kind of price appreciation that I’m looking for. Part of my macro thought process for why that is happening despite all of the talk about exit strategies which I think is to some extent, yes they could raise rates or certainly have some asset sales, but personally I think the increase in rates would have a huge impact on servicing of debt.

People can’t afford to pay that coupon, I think that would be an exit. I think they (the Fed) are posturing so I’m not completely convinced that rates are going up or that there is going to be any asset sales. I’m more in the QE3 camp…because the events in the Middle-East and North Africa, these are, they are definitely seminal events.

We had the Iranian revolution in ’79, we had Yom Kippur in ’73, we had the Iraq invasion in 1980, we had the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990, all of those events are nowhere near as significant as what we are seeing now and gold did tremendously well. In fact in ’79 when the gold price was actually quite high we had a very good year after that revolution. So for me gold prices will remain high and will go higher and I think it will be coupled with higher, but volatile oil prices.

Kategorier:Ädelmetaller, Guld Taggar:,